Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
VfL Bochum welcome FSV Mainz 05 on 27 October 2026 · 17:00 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion (Bochum), and the referee is M. Bacher. FSV Mainz 05 (56%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: FSV Mainz 05 win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): FSV Mainz 05 win by 1. Loses: a draw, FSV Mainz 05 lose.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, VfL Bochum average 2.0 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 9.0 for and 0.0 against for FSV Mainz 05.
- Form in the competition. VfL Bochum: 1W 0D 0L, goals 2–1; FSV Mainz 05: 1W 0D 0L, goals 9–0.
- Head to head. In 11 previous meetings, VfL Bochum have taken 3 wins to FSV Mainz 05's 6 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 15–21.
What to expect
In our view FSV Mainz 05 hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), which we give a 60% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 11; VfL Bochum 3 wins, 2 draws, FSV Mainz 05 6 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: VfL Bochum 2–1, FSV Mainz 05 9–0.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: VfL Bochum 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for VfL Bochum: no absences. FSV Mainz 05 will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.02 | 4.35 | 1.78 |
| Market average | 4.54 | 4.01 | 1.65 |
| Lowest odds | 4.10 | 3.74 | 1.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.55 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.41 | 2.37 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.32 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.56 | 59.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.29 | 40.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 27/10/26, 16:22. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: VfL Bochum 1–2 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: VfL Bochum 1W 0D 0L (2:1), FSV Mainz 05 1W 0D 0L (9:0).
- H2H: 11 matches: VfL Bochum 3W 2D 6L, goals 15–21.
- Absences: VfL Bochum 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: injuries and missing players
VfL Bochum
- No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: last matches of both teams
VfL Bochum
FSV Mainz 05
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
VfL BochumWFSV Mainz 05WHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 (Asian handicap) (2.00); Over 2.5 goals (1.60).
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our estimate gives VfL Bochum a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FSV Mainz 05 56%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 27 October 2026 at 17:00, venue Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum. Referee: M. Bacher.
Who will be missing?
VfL Bochum: no absences. FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.60) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.41).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.9%) and 0–2 (8.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.