Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Anaitasuna vs Alavés (Copa del Rey, 10 November 2026, 18:00): Both teams to score: no at odds of 1.55. Second tip: Alavés to win at odds of 1.04. The bookmakers' odds give Anaitasuna 3%, the draw 6% and Alavés 91%. The most likely score is 0–3.
Anaitasuna vs Alavés preview and prediction
Anaitasuna host Alavés in round 128 of the Copa del Rey at Campo Txerloia in Azcoitia, with kick-off at 18:00 on 10 November 2026. The bookmakers make Alavés 91% to win, with best odds of 1.04, while Anaitasuna are at 51.00 for a win and the draw at 19.00. That gap is wide, and it shapes everything we say about this tie.
The key facts
- Likely result: Anaitasuna 0–3 Alavés, roughly 5 goals in total.
- Absences: Anaitasuna 0, Alavés 0.
Alavés arrive with five matches and no wins
Alavés have played five matches in all competitions, starting with a 0-0 draw at Athletic Club on 19/9/26. They then lost 1-2 at home to Atlético Madrid on 10/10/26, lost 2-1 at Celta Vigo on 18/10/26, drew 1-1 at home with Málaga on 23/10/26 and lost 6-1 at Barcelona on 31/10/26. Across those five games they have won none, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 4 goals and conceding 11.
The Barcelona result is the one that stands out, and it is a heavy one. What we do not like is the goals against column. Eleven conceded in five matches is a lot for a team that has to travel and win a cup tie.
Anaitasuna vs Alavés: last matches of both teams
Anaitasuna
Alavés
Anaitasuna's form is the missing piece
We have no recent results for Anaitasuna to set against Alavés' run, so we cannot judge the home side's momentum with any confidence. That is a real gap in our reading of the tie, and we would be guessing if we pretended otherwise. What we can say is that the prices make Anaitasuna a 3% chance, which tells us the bookmakers have very little faith in a home win.
No earlier meeting between the two clubs is known, so there is no head-to-head to lean on either. The decision rests on the price, the goals lines and the Alavés run, and those three point the same way.
Anaitasuna vs Alavés: injuries and missing players
Anaitasuna
- No reported absences
Alavés
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Goals lines point to a lopsided scoreline
The market expects a lot of goals here. Over 1.5 goals is priced at a 93% chance, over 2.5 goals at 82% and over 3.5 goals at 66%. The expected goals are 1 for Anaitasuna and 4 for Alavés, roughly 5 in total. The most likely exact scores are 0-3 at 10.8%, 0-4 at 10.1% and 0-2 at 8.6%, so the bookmakers see Alavés scoring and Anaitasuna struggling to find the net.
These figures describe what the bookmakers expect from this match. They are not a count of how often Alavés or Anaitasuna have produced such scores in the past, and we would be misreading them if we treated them that way.
Anaitasuna vs Alavés: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 36.00 | 15.00 | 1.04 |
| Market average | 36.00 | 15.00 | 1.04 |
| Lowest odds | 36.00 | 15.00 | 1.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.04 | 1.04 | 92.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.15 | 81.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 5.00 | 5.00 | 18.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.40 | 65.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.38 | 2.38 | 39.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.55 | 1.54 | 60.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 02:15. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.6%.
Team news leaves the selection untouched
No absences have been reported for either side. We see nothing in the team news that changes the shape of the tie, which means the question is about how Alavés handle their own defending rather than who is missing.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AnaitasunaWWAlavésOur main call: both teams not to score
Our main tip is both teams to score: no at odds 1.65 (chance 61%). The market gives it 61% at best odds 1.65, and that is the argument we are working with. It is not a certainty, and we would stake it as a sensible, moderate bet rather than a big one. The reasoning is simple: if Alavés do what the prices expect and keep the scoring to themselves, Anaitasuna's chances of finding a goal are slim.
This tip wins on 0-2, 0-3, 0-4 and 0-5. It loses on 1-3 and 1-4. So the bet lives or dies on whether the home side score at all, and the scorelines where Anaitasuna get on the board are the ones that cost it.
Anaitasuna vs Alavés: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Our second tip: Alavés to win
Our second tip is Alavés to win at odds 1.04 (chance 91%). The market gives it 91% at best odds 1.04, and on those figures it is the most likely result on the board. We understand the appeal, but at 1.04 the return on the stake is tiny, and one heavy defeat is enough to wipe out a long run of small wins. We would rather not put money on it.
It wins on 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 1-3 and 1-4. Those cover almost every likely scoreline that favours Alavés, so the bet is sound on the result, but the price asks too much.
Who will win Anaitasuna vs Alavés?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Other markets worth a look
Beyond the two tips, we like one of the goals markets. Over 3.5 goals at odds 1.40 (chance 66%) fits the expected total of about 5 and gives a more reasonable price than the match result. Under 3.5 goals at odds 3.10 (chance 34%) is one we would leave alone, given how far the expected total sits above the line.
On the match result, we would not back Anaitasuna at 51.00 or the draw at 19.00. Their chances of 3% and 7% are too low to justify the prices, and the bookmaker margin on the match result of 6.6% means the prices are built to take a cut from every stake.
Final word before the whistle in Azcoitia
Alavés look the stronger side on paper and on the prices, but their recent defending is the reason we are cautious. Our money goes on both teams not to score at 1.65, with over 3.5 goals as the bet we like alongside it. The result itself is not where we see value. Enjoy the game at Campo Txerloia, and keep the stakes modest.
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Anaitasuna vs Alavés?
Both teams to score: no (1.55); Alavés to win (1.04).
Who will win Anaitasuna vs Alavés?
Our estimate gives Anaitasuna a 3% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Alavés 91%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 10 November 2026 at 18:00, venue Campo Txerloia, Azcoitia.
Who will be missing?
Anaitasuna: no absences. Alavés: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 81% (odds 1.15) and under 2.5 goals at 19% (odds 5.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 39% (odds 2.38).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–3 (11.3%), then 0–4 (10.6%) and 0–2 (9.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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