Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Villa Park (Birmingham), Aston Villa take on Manchester City, with P. Bankes in charge. We make Manchester City (59%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Aston Villa win, a draw, Aston Villa lose by 1. Loses: Aston Villa lose by 2 or more.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Aston Villa lie 10th, having collected 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L); Manchester City lie 2nd, having collected 21 points (7W 0D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Aston Villa average 1.0 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 2.7 for and 1.0 against for Manchester City.
- Form in the competition. Aston Villa: 2W 2D 3L, goals 7–11; Manchester City: 7W 0D 0L, goals 19–7.
- Head to head. In 30 previous meetings, Aston Villa have taken 8 wins to Manchester City's 20 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 29–69.
What to expect
In our view Manchester City hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 66%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 30; Aston Villa 8 wins, 2 draws, Manchester City 20 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Aston Villa 7–11, Manchester City 19–7.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
- Unavailable: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 4.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 63%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Aston Villa: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, J. Manzambi. Manchester City will be without: A. Semenyo, M. Kovacic, M. Nunes, N. O'Reilly. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.18 | 4.51 | 1.68 |
| Market average | 4.92 | 4.43 | 1.63 |
| Lowest odds | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.12 | 83.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.46 | 1.44 | 65.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 34.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.09 | 45.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.52 | 36.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 09:44. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester City, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (12 points), Manchester City 2nd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Aston Villa 2W 2D 3L (7:11), Manchester City 7W 0D 0L (19:7).
- H2H: 30 matches: Aston Villa 8W 2D 20L, goals 29–69.
- Absences: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 4.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: injuries and missing players
Aston Villa
- A. Onanaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Ruggerimuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Wan-Bissakamuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Manzambicalf injury · doubtful
Manchester City
- A. Semenyoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Kovacicinjury · doubtful
- M. Nunesknock · doubtful
- N. O'Reillyback injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Aston Villa
Home and away
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: last matches of both teams
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Aston VillaDWWDWManchester CityLLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Aston Villa +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Over 2.5 goals (1.46).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Our estimate gives Aston Villa a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester City 59%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 12:30, venue Villa Park, Birmingham. Referee: P. Bankes.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, J. Manzambi. Manchester City: A. Semenyo, M. Kovacic, M. Nunes, N. O'Reilly. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.46) and under 2.5 goals at 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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