Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 5–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg, 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at BayArena (Leverkusen), with F. Zwayer officiating. The odds point to Bayer Leverkusen (74%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bayer Leverkusen average 4.0 goals for and 0.0 against, compared with 1.0 for and 1.0 against for 1. FC Nürnberg.
- Form in the competition. Bayer Leverkusen: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; 1. FC Nürnberg: 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Head to head. In 11 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 7 wins to 1. FC Nürnberg's 2 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 22–9.
What to expect
In our view Bayer Leverkusen hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (8.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.28), the goals markets are also worth considering: Both teams to score (odds 1.55), which we give a 60% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 73%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 11; Bayer Leverkusen 7 wins, 2 draws, 1. FC Nürnberg 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.8 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bayer Leverkusen 4–0, 1. FC Nürnberg 1–1.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
- Unavailable: Bayer Leverkusen 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 54%, top price 1.83). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bayer Leverkusen: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.28 | 6.39 | 9.00 |
| Market average | 1.27 | 6.05 | 8.78 |
| Lowest odds | 1.26 | 5.75 | 8.63 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 1.06 | 88.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.43 | 27.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.75 | 53.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.54 | 60.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.32 | 39.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bayer Leverkusen 1W 0D 0L (4:0), 1. FC Nürnberg 0W 1D 0L (1:1).
- H2H: 11 matches: Bayer Leverkusen 7W 2D 2L, goals 22–9.
- Absences: Bayer Leverkusen 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: injuries and missing players
Bayer Leverkusen
- No reported absences
1. FC Nürnberg
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: last matches of both teams
Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Nürnberg
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Bayer LeverkusenW1. FC NürnbergDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Over 3.5 goals (1.83); Bayer Leverkusen to win (1.28).
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our estimate gives Bayer Leverkusen a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and 1. FC Nürnberg 11%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 19:45, venue BayArena, Leverkusen. Referee: F. Zwayer.
Who will be missing?
Bayer Leverkusen: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 73% (odds 1.31) and under 2.5 goals at 27% (odds 3.60).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.55).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (8.9%), then 2–0 (8.9%) and 3–1 (8.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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