Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Burgos welcome Castellón on 1 November 2026 · 17:30 at Municipal El Plantío (Burgos), and the referee is Rafael Sanchez Lopez. Castellón (46%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Castellón win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Castellón lose.
Burgos vs Castellón: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Burgos lie 8th, having collected 21 points after 12 matches (6W 3D 3L); Castellón lie 1st, having collected 27 points (8W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Burgos average 1.5 goals for and 1.1 against, compared with 2.0 for and 0.4 against for Castellón.
- Form in the competition. Burgos: 6W 2D 3L, goals 16–12; Castellón: 8W 2D 1L, goals 22–4.
- Head to head. In 4 previous meetings, Burgos have taken 0 wins to Castellón's 3 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 2–7.
What to expect
In our view Castellón hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.0%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 50%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 4; Burgos 0 wins, 1 draw, Castellón 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Burgos 16–12, Castellón 22–4.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
- Unavailable: Burgos 0, Castellón 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.95). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Burgos: no absences. Castellón will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Burgos vs Castellón: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.32 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Market average | 3.75 | 3.22 | 2.03 |
| Lowest odds | 3.29 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.26 | 74.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.88 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.91 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.12 | 30.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.07 | 44.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 17:05. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Burgos 1–1 Castellón, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Burgos 8th (21 points), Castellón 1st (27 points).
- Form in the competition: Burgos 6W 2D 3L (16:12), Castellón 8W 2D 1L (22:4).
- H2H: 4 matches: Burgos 0W 1D 3L, goals 2–7.
- Absences: Burgos 0, Castellón 0.
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Burgos vs Castellón: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Burgos vs Castellón: injuries and missing players
Burgos
- No reported absences
Castellón
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | 3-6-3 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  FC Andorra | 12 | 3-2-7 | 17:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Burgos
Home and away
Burgos vs Castellón: last matches of both teams
Burgos
Castellón
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BurgosDWWLLCastellónDWWLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Burgos vs Castellón?
Castellón +0 (Asian handicap) (1.52); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
Our estimate gives Burgos a 25% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Castellón 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 17:30, venue Municipal El Plantío, Burgos. Referee: Rafael Sanchez Lopez.
Who will be missing?
Burgos: no absences. Castellón: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.97).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.0%), then 0–1 (11.0%) and 1–2 (9.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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