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UEFA Conference League · league phase, matchday 3 · 5 November 2026 · 20:00

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: prediction, odds and betting tip – 5 November 2026, UEFA Conference League

1FC Lugano1.19
XDraw9.49
2Kauno Žalgiris19.59

Top price available · Updated 5/11/26, 18:00

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Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

FC Lugano welcome Kauno Žalgiris on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at AIL Arena (Lugano), and the referee is Yigal Frid, Israel. FC Lugano (82%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: tip and prediction
Main tip · Handicap
FC Lugano -2 (Asian handicap)
1.82
Chance 53% · confidence medium
Second tip · Goals
Over 2.5 goals
1.47
Chance 66% · confidence high
Combo
FC Lugano with over 2.5 goals
1.69
59% · combo fair odds
2–0likely score
≈ 4 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: FC Lugano or draw (1X) at a probability of 94%, with odds of up to 1.04. Because the result is a short price, we would add a goals tip alongside it.
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FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: our analysis

Why we chose this tip

  1. Table. FC Lugano lie 1st, having collected 9 points after 3 matches (3W 0D 0L); Kauno Žalgiris lie 36th, having collected 0 points (0W 0D 3L).
  2. Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, FC Lugano average 2.6 goals for and 1.1 against, compared with 0.5 for and 4.0 against for Kauno Žalgiris.
  3. Form in the competition. FC Lugano: 6W 2D 0L, goals 21–9; Kauno Žalgiris: 0W 0D 2L, goals 1–8.

What to expect

In our view FC Lugano hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (13.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.

With the result at a short price (1.19), the goals markets are also worth considering: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 43%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 66%.

The prediction at a glance

  1. Scored and conceded in this competition: FC Lugano 21–9, Kauno Žalgiris 1–8.
  2. Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
  3. Unavailable: FC Lugano 0, Kauno Žalgiris 0.

Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no

Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 57%, top price 1.67). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.

Absences

Unavailable for FC Lugano: no absences. Kauno Žalgiris will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: bookmaker odds side by side

Match result1X2
Top price available1.199.4919.59
Market average1.157.8616.64
Lowest odds1.126.6612.04
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.151.1184.2%
Over 2.5 goals1.471.4265.7%
Under 2.5 goals2.882.7234.3%
Over 3.5 goals2.212.0945.1%
BTTS – yes2.202.1543.1%
BTTS – no1.671.6356.9%

Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.9%.

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The key facts

  • Likely result: FC Lugano 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris, roughly 4 goals in total.
  • Table: FC Lugano 1st (9 points), Kauno Žalgiris 36th (0 points).
  • Form in the competition: FC Lugano 6W 2D 0L (21:9), Kauno Žalgiris 0W 0D 2L (1:8).
  • Absences: FC Lugano 0, Kauno Žalgiris 0.

Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?

FC Lugano82%
Draw12%
Kauno Žalgiris6%

We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: more betting tips

FC Lugano or draw (1X)94.2% · fair odds 1.06 · best 1.04
Likely
Over 1.5 goals84.2% · fair odds 1.19 · best 1.15
Likely
FC Lugano to win82.1% · fair odds 1.22 · best 1.19
Likely
Over 2.5 goals65.7% · fair odds 1.52 · best 1.47
Likely
Both teams to score: no56.9% · fair odds 1.76 · best 1.67
Possible
Under 3.5 goals54.9% · fair odds 1.82 · best 1.75
Possible
Over 3.5 goals45.1% · fair odds 2.22 · best 2.21
Outsider
Both teams to score: yes43.1% · fair odds 2.32 · best 2.20
Outsider
Under 2.5 goals34.3% · fair odds 2.91 · best 2.88
Outsider
Draw12.1% · fair odds 8.25 · best 9.49
Outsider
Kauno Žalgiris to win5.8% · fair odds 17.36 · best 19.59
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.

Corners and cards betting

Cornersline 9.5 corners
Over 1.88 · Under 1.84
probability of over 49.5%

Correct score tips

2 : 013.3%
3 : 012.2%
1 : 09.6%
4 : 08.4%
2 : 18.0%
3 : 17.3%

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: injuries and missing players

FC Lugano

  • No reported absences

Kauno Žalgiris

  • No reported absences

Team news can still change before the game.

Standings and form

#TeamPW-D-LGoalsPts
1FC Lugano33-0-011:49
2Panathinaikos33-0-09:39
3Twente33-0-08:29
4Monaco33-0-07:19
5Brighton32-1-05:07
6Brann32-1-07:37
7FC Copenhagen32-1-07:37
8Universitatea Craiova32-1-06:27
9Mjällby AIF32-1-05:17
10St. Truiden32-1-04:17
11Ajax32-0-19:36
12Trabzonspor32-0-16:36
13HNK Hajduk Split32-0-13:26
14SC Freiburg32-0-14:56
15FK Crvena Zvezda31-1-16:64
16Atalanta31-1-14:44
17SC Braga31-1-12:34
18Gent31-1-11:24
19Riga30-3-03:33
20FC Thun31-0-23:33
21Borac Banja Luka31-0-23:43
22Lincoln Red Imps FC31-0-23:63
23FK Jablonec30-2-13:42
24Aarhus30-2-11:22
25FC Nordsjælland30-2-13:52
26Egnatia Rrogozhinë30-2-12:42
27Kairat Almaty30-2-13:72
28CSKA Sofia30-1-24:61
29FC Iberia 199930-1-22:51
30Pafos30-1-23:71
31Getafe30-1-23:71
32Heart Of Midlothian30-1-22:61
33KuPS30-1-22:61
34FC Midtjylland30-1-22:81
35Inter Club d'Escaldes30-0-32:70
36Kauno Žalgiris30-0-31:110

Recent matches

FC Lugano

5 NovWFC Lugano 3–0 Kauno Žalgiris
22 OctWGetafe 2–5 FC Lugano
15 OctWFC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda
27 AugDMaccabi Tel Aviv 1–1 FC Lugano
20 AugWFC Lugano 2–1 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Kauno Žalgiris

5 NovLFC Lugano 3–0 Kauno Žalgiris
22 OctLKauno Žalgiris 1–4 Brann
15 OctLBrighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris

Home and away

FC Lugano at home2 matches: 2W 0D 0L, goals 6–2
Kauno Žalgiris away2 matches: 0W 0D 2L, goals 0–7

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: last matches of both teams

FC Lugano

W 22/10/26 · Getafe 2–5 FC Lugano
W 15/10/26 · FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda
D 27/8/26 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–1 FC Lugano
W 20/8/26 · FC Lugano 2–1 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Kauno Žalgiris

L 22/10/26 · Kauno Žalgiris 1–4 Brann
L 15/10/26 · Brighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris

Team comparison

FC LuganoKauno Žalgiris
100%Form0%
93%Attack7%
50%Defence50%
71.5%Overall28.5%

All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.

Form in the competition

FC LuganoWWW
Kauno ŽalgirisLLL

Returns calculator

Potential return0 £
Net profit0 £
Implied probability0%
Market margin5.9%

Questions and answers

Which tip do we give for FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?

FC Lugano -2 (Asian handicap) (1.82); Over 2.5 goals (1.47).

Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?

Our estimate gives FC Lugano a 82% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Kauno Žalgiris 6%.

What is the date, time and venue of the game?

Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 20:00, venue AIL Arena, Lugano. Referee: Yigal Frid, Israel.

Who will be missing?

FC Lugano: no absences. Kauno Žalgiris: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?

We put over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.47) and under 2.5 goals at 34% (odds 2.88).

Will both teams score?

We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 43% (odds 2.20).

What correct score do we see as likeliest?

Top of our list is 2–0 (13.3%), then 3–0 (12.2%) and 1–0 (9.6%).

How do you put your predictions together?

Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.

18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.