Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sheffield United vs Derby, 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Bramall Lane (Sheffield), with Stephen Martin, England officiating. The odds point to Sheffield United (53%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Derby win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Derby lose by 1. Loses: Derby lose by 2 or more.
Sheffield United vs Derby: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sheffield United lie 9th, having collected 22 points after 14 matches (6W 4D 4L); Derby lie 23rd, having collected 10 points (2W 4D 9L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sheffield United average 1.4 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 0.8 for and 1.8 against for Derby.
- Form in the competition. Sheffield United: 4W 3D 4L, goals 15–14; Derby: 1W 3D 7L, goals 9–20.
- Head to head. In 14 previous meetings, Sheffield United have taken 9 wins to Derby's 3 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 22–14.
What to expect
In our view Sheffield United hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we give a 67% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 54%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 14; Sheffield United 9 wins, 2 draws, Derby 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.6 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sheffield United 15–14, Derby 9–20.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
- Unavailable: Sheffield United 2, Derby 11.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 55%, top price 1.73). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sheffield United: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby will be without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sheffield United vs Derby: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.82 | 4.01 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.82 | 4.33 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 1.74 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.05 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.81 | 33.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.07 | 44.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 10:03. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sheffield United 1–1 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sheffield United 9th (22 points), Derby 23rd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Sheffield United 4W 3D 4L (15:14), Derby 1W 3D 7L (9:20).
- H2H: 14 matches: Sheffield United 9W 2D 3L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Sheffield United 2, Derby 11.
Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sheffield United vs Derby: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sheffield United vs Derby: injuries and missing players
Sheffield United
- M. Dohertyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Shackletonabsence · will miss the match
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Widell Zetterstromknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Johnstonnot in the squad · doubtful
- A. Mowattabsence · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sheffield United
Home and away
Sheffield United vs Derby: last matches of both teams
Sheffield United
Derby
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Sheffield UnitedWWDWLDerbyWLLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sheffield United vs Derby?
Derby +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby?
Our estimate gives Sheffield United a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Derby 22%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 12:30, venue Bramall Lane, Sheffield. Referee: Stephen Martin, England.
Who will be missing?
Sheffield United: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.78) and under 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.13).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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