Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland welcome Leeds on 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), and the referee is S. Attwell. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Leeds win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Leeds lose.
Sunderland vs Leeds: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sunderland lie 20th, having collected 5 points after 9 matches (1W 2D 6L); Leeds lie 12th, having collected 11 points (2W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sunderland average 0.9 goals for and 2.0 against, compared with 1.3 for and 0.9 against for Leeds.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 1D 5L, goals 6–14; Leeds: 2W 4D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. In 11 previous meetings, Sunderland have taken 3 wins to Leeds's 3 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 8–9.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (13.0%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.74), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 43%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 11; Sunderland 3 wins, 5 draws, Leeds 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sunderland 6–14, Leeds 9–6.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
- Unavailable: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sunderland: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds will be without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sunderland vs Leeds: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.02 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Market average | 2.95 | 3.13 | 2.59 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 68.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.21 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.68 | 56.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.20 | 4.01 | 23.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:09. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Leeds, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Sunderland 20th (5 points), Leeds 12th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 1D 5L (6:14), Leeds 2W 4D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 11 matches: Sunderland 3W 5D 3L, goals 8–9.
- Absences: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sunderland vs Leeds: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sunderland vs Leeds: injuries and missing players
Sunderland
- D. Ballardmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Dansored card · will miss the match
- R. Mundleknee injury · will miss the match
- W. Isidorinjury · doubtful
- T. Meuniermuscle injury · doubtful
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Calvert-Lewinfoot injury · doubtful
- N. Okaforgroin injury · doubtful
- A. Stachgroin injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sunderland
Home and away
Sunderland vs Leeds: last matches of both teams
Sunderland
Leeds
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SunderlandLDLLLLeedsLDDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sunderland vs Leeds?
Leeds +0 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Under 2.5 goals (1.74).
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
Our estimate gives Sunderland a 32% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Leeds 37%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 16:30, venue Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: S. Attwell.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.27) and under 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.74).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.91).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (13.0%), then 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–0 (10.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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