Villefranche vs Quevilly: prediction, odds and betting tip – 7 November 2026, Ligue 3

Villefranche vs Quevilly preview and prediction

Villefranche host Quevilly at the Stade Armand Chouffet on 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:45, in Matchweek 12 of Ligue 3. The standings and the odds disagree here: Quevilly sit 13th with 13 points, while Villefranche are 16th with 8. Even so, the market still rates Villefranche as the likelier winners, which raises the question of whether the league table or the betting prices are reading this fixture more accurately.

Villefranche's home record is not the problem

Villefranche have collected 8 points from 11 matches in this competition, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats. At home they have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2, scoring 5 and conceding 5. That is not a fortress, but it is not a collapse either. The bigger worry is the defence: 24 goals conceded in 11 games in Ligue 3, an average of 2.2 per match, against 0.9 scored.

Results have been hard to come by for them lately across every competition. From their last five outings they took one win, a 2-1 home success against Cannes, and one draw, away at Orléans, while three ended in defeat: a 4-1 reverse at Le Puy Foot and a 3-0 loss at Amiens among them. Over those five they have found the net 5 times and let in 11. The tallies confirm they failed to score in one of those five games.

Quevilly's steady football and their away problem

Quevilly have 13 points from 11 games in this competition, with 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats. Their goals return is 11 scored and 16 conceded, which works out at 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per match. That is the better defensive figure of the two sides, and it is the main reason we rate them above their position in the bookmakers' eyes.

Across all competitions they have been fairly solid rather than eye-catching: one win, a 3-2 success at home against Orléans, two draws (including a 1-1 at home versus Amiens), and two losses, 3-1 at Cannes and 2-0 at Bastia. On the road, however, the picture is poor. In this competition they have failed to win any of their six away matches, managing two draws and four defeats, and have scored just 2 goals while conceding 10. That away record is the main reason we stop short of backing them to win outright.

Head-to-head history and a clean team sheet

Over the last 12 meetings, Villefranche have the stronger head-to-head record, winning seven to Quevilly's five, with no draws. Villefranche have scored 14 goals in those games and Quevilly 11. The most recent clash was Quevilly 1-2 Villefranche on 30 January 2026, which came after a 2-1 Villefranche win on 22 August 2025. We do not put much weight on that history, but it shows Villefranche have recently found a way to beat Quevilly.

There are no absences reported for either side, so both teams should be close to full strength and the picture is not complicated by team news.

Odds, the table and where we stand

The odds-makers rate Villefranche as the most probable winner at 39% (top price 2.48), with a draw at 28% (top price 3.42) and Quevilly at 33% (top price 3.00). The overround on the 1X2 market is 10.0%. These numbers reflect the market's outlook alone; they say nothing about how often either side has actually won. Expected goals sit at 1 per team, roughly 2 combined, and the most likely exact results are 1-1 at 12.8%, 1-0 at 10.7% and 0-1 at 9.9%.

Our Villefranche vs Quevilly betting tip: Quevilly +0.25

Our top pick is Quevilly +0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.72, chance 55%. We divide the stake evenly: one half goes on Quevilly +0, the other on Quevilly +0.5. With +0, a Quevilly victory pays out, a draw gives the money back, and a loss forfeits it. With +0.5, the wager only fails if Quevilly lose by a margin of 1 goal or more.

Our pick is Quevilly. Villefranche have taken only 1 win from their last 5 matches in every competition, and Quevilly are 13th on 13 points while Villefranche sit 16th on 8. The best price on offer is 1.72, which implies 55% probability, and we see that as value given Quevilly's stronger defensive record. We chose a split stake over a plain win bet because it cushions a draw. Settlement on the most likely scores (home-away): 1-1 pays back half the stake as a partial win; 1-0 is a loss; 0-1 is a win; 2-1 is a loss; 0-0 pays back half the stake as a partial win; 1-2 is a win.

Our second tip: Under 2.5 goals

Pick two is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.75, chance 55%. Across their last 5 matches in every competition, Quevilly have gone over 2.5 goals just twice. The bookmakers price the under at 55% with the best odds at 1.75. We pair it with the main tip, because an expected total near 2 goals fits the under. Checking the most probable scorelines (home-away): 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 win; 2-1 and 1-2 lose.

Other bets we would add

• Quevilly +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.24, chance 80%. You only lose if Quevilly are beaten by 2 or more goals. It is the safest way to back the side we like.
• Quevilly +1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.35, chance 75%. Only a loss by two or more goals sinks this wager; a one-goal defeat gives the stake back.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, chance 74%. The price is low, yet it fits neatly with our read on the total.

Keep the Villefranche handicap lines out of the bet slip, since they cut against the Quevilly outlook behind both tips. The table leans toward Quevilly while the bookmakers lean toward Villefranche, and we go with the table. The score we see as most probable is 1-1, which would give back half the stake on the main tip and still land the under 2.5.