Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Vicarage Road (Watford), Watford take on Lincoln, with James Bell in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Watford win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Watford lose.
Watford vs Lincoln: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Watford lie 20th, having collected 14 points after 14 matches (4W 2D 8L); Lincoln lie 19th, having collected 15 points (4W 3D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Watford average 0.9 goals for and 1.8 against, compared with 1.1 for and 1.8 against for Lincoln.
- Form in the competition. Watford: 3W 2D 8L, goals 12–23; Lincoln: 4W 3D 6L, goals 14–23.
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, Watford have taken 1 win to Lincoln's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 1–0.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.7%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.75), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 48%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; Watford 1 win, 0 draws, Lincoln 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Watford 12–23, Lincoln 14–23.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
- Unavailable: Watford 9, Lincoln 2.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 52%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, N. Chikovani, S. Coulibaly, J. Grieves, J. Ngakia, L. Kjerrumgaard, B. Mlacic. Lincoln will be without: T. Darikwa, M. Melia. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Watford vs Lincoln: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.81 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.70 | 3.28 | 2.56 |
| Lowest odds | 2.60 | 3.11 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.97 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.81 | 52.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.56 | 3.36 | 27.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.03 | 45.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Watford 1–1 Lincoln, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Watford 20th (14 points), Lincoln 19th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Watford 3W 2D 8L (12:23), Lincoln 4W 3D 6L (14:23).
- H2H: 1 match: Watford 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0.
- Absences: Watford 9, Lincoln 2.
Who will win Watford vs Lincoln?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Watford vs Lincoln: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Watford vs Lincoln: injuries and missing players
Watford
- M. Antonionot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Chikovaninot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Coulibalyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Grievesnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Kjerrumgaardnot in the squad · doubtful
- B. Mlacicnot in the squad · doubtful
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 | Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Watford
Home and away
Watford vs Lincoln: last matches of both teams
Watford
Lincoln
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
WatfordWLLWLLincolnLLWDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Watford vs Lincoln?
Watford +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.71); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Watford vs Lincoln?
Our estimate gives Watford a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lincoln 37%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 3 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Vicarage Road, Watford. Referee: James Bell.
Who will be missing?
Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, N. Chikovani, S. Coulibaly, J. Grieves, J. Ngakia, L. Kjerrumgaard, B. Mlacic. Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.05) and under 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.85).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.7%), then 0–1 (10.2%) and 1–0 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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