Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AD Ceuta FC welcome Sporting Gijón on 1 November 2026 · 15:15 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta), and the referee is Ojaos Valera, Alejandro. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. AD Ceuta FC lie 22nd, having collected 5 points after 12 matches (1W 2D 9L); Sporting Gijón lie 6th, having collected 22 points (7W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, AD Ceuta FC average 0.9 goals for and 2.3 against, compared with 1.0 for and 1.2 against for Sporting Gijón.
- Form in the competition. AD Ceuta FC: 1W 2D 8L, goals 10–25; Sporting Gijón: 6W 1D 4L, goals 11–13.
- Head to head. In 3 previous meetings, AD Ceuta FC have taken 1 win to Sporting Gijón's 2 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 2–4.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.4%). This one looks finely poised.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Sporting Gijón, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 50%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 3; AD Ceuta FC 1 win, 0 draws, Sporting Gijón 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: AD Ceuta FC 10–25, Sporting Gijón 11–13.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
- Unavailable: AD Ceuta FC 0, Sporting Gijón 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.96). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for AD Ceuta FC: no absences. Sporting Gijón will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.42 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Market average | 2.35 | 3.36 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 73.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 1.90 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.89 | 50.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.21 | 29.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.68 | 55.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.15 | 2.07 | 44.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 12:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sporting Gijón, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: AD Ceuta FC 22nd (5 points), Sporting Gijón 6th (22 points).
- Form in the competition: AD Ceuta FC 1W 2D 8L (10:25), Sporting Gijón 6W 1D 4L (11:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: AD Ceuta FC 1W 0D 2L, goals 2–4.
- Absences: AD Ceuta FC 0, Sporting Gijón 0.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: injuries and missing players
AD Ceuta FC
- No reported absences
Sporting Gijón
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | 3-6-3 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  FC Andorra | 12 | 3-2-7 | 17:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
AD Ceuta FC
Home and away
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: last matches of both teams
AD Ceuta FC
Sporting Gijón
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AD Ceuta FCLLLLDSporting GijónWLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón?
Under 2.5 goals (1.96); AD Ceuta FC or draw (1X) (1.44).
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón?
Our estimate gives AD Ceuta FC a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sporting Gijón 32%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 15:15, venue Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta. Referee: Ojaos Valera, Alejandro.
Who will be missing?
AD Ceuta FC: no absences. Sporting Gijón: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.99) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.96).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.4%), then 1–0 (9.9%) and 0–1 (8.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.