Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Aston Villa vs Sunderland (Premier League, 21 November 2026, 15:00): Aston Villa -0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.97. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.70. The bookmakers' odds give Aston Villa 54%, the draw 25% and Sunderland 21%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Aston Villa win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Aston Villa win by 1. Loses: a draw, Aston Villa lose.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Aston Villa lie 10th, having collected 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L); Sunderland lie 20th, having collected 5 points (1W 2D 6L).
What to expect
In our view Aston Villa hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.70), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 54%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
- Unavailable: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 54%, top price 1.82). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Aston Villa: no absences. Sunderland will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.78 | 4.16 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.74 | 3.84 | 4.50 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.36 | 3.96 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.23 | 76.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.78 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.09 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.92 | 2.83 | 33.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.70 | 54.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.06 | 45.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 05:23. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (12 points), Sunderland 20th (5 points).
- Absences: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: injuries and missing players
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Aston Villa
Home and away
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: last matches of both teams
Aston Villa
Sunderland
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Both teams to score (1.70).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our estimate gives Aston Villa a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sunderland 21%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 21 November 2026 at 15:00, venue Villa Park, Birmingham.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.82) and under 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.9%), then 1–0 (10.4%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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