Aubagne vs Amiens: prediction, odds and betting tip – 7 November 2026, Ligue 3

Aubagne vs Amiens preview and prediction

Aubagne occupy 17th place in Ligue 3 with 7 points after 11 matches, whereas Amiens sit 8th with 17 points over an identical number of games. Note that these figures reflect Matchweek 12 of this competition alone, so they tell us nothing about cup ties or any other meeting between the two sides. Kick-off is at 13:45 on 7 November 2026 at the Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, a venue with a capacity of 3000.

Three-goal game on the bookmakers' sheet

Expected goals were our starting point. Aubagne land near 1 and Amiens near 2, so we are looking at roughly three goals overall. The scorelines that come up most often are 0-1 at 12.7%, 1-1 at 12.1% and 0-2 at 9.9%. Together these three account for much of what the market is pricing in.

Aubagne's attack meets a tight-fisted Amiens

Aubagne have scored 6 and conceded 17 in this competition, which is 0.5 goals per match scored and 1.5 conceded. Their home record is one win, no draws and four defeats, with 3 scored and 7 conceded. Those are poor numbers for a side expected to host a visitor with a stronger record.

Amiens have found the net 14 times and let in 5 in this competition, which works out to 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded per game. On the road their record reads one win, four draws and one defeat, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. They are hardly prolific away from home, yet they seldom allow an opponent to get carried away.

Form lines that split the two sides

Over every competition, Aubagne collected one win in their last five matches, with no draws and four defeats. They scored 3 goals and conceded 10. The lone victory was a 2-1 success at Fleury 91. The other results were a 1-0 loss at Rouen, a 3-1 loss at La Roche VF, a 0-1 home loss to Le Puy Foot, and a 4-0 loss at Versailles. Over 2.5 goals were scored in three of those five games, which is the figure that counts most for goals markets.

Across every competition, Amiens' last five games produced two victories and three stalemates, with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. Both sides found the net in three of those matches, and only one went past 2.5 goals. They lost none. This is a team that picks up wins or draws quietly, and that is exactly what we like about them this week.

No earlier meeting is known, and neither side has injury doubts

No earlier meeting between these two sides is known, so there is no past form between them to draw on. No injuries or suspensions have been reported by either camp. This clean picture is welcome, since late team news is usually what pushes odds around for reasons that have little to do with the match itself.

What the market prices tell us

Amiens head into this one as the market's pick, with bookmakers putting their chance of victory at 51% against best odds of 1.83. Aubagne sit at 23% to win, priced at best odds of 4.24, while the draw is available at 3.57 with a 27% implied probability. The overround across the 1X2 lines comes to 10.2%, so treat these percentages as the market's reading after the bookmakers' margin has been built in, not as a call we are backing.

On goals, over 2.5 is 47% at best odds of 2.15, and under 2.5 is 53% at best odds of 1.83. Both teams to score is 49% for yes and 51% for no. The market leans towards fewer than 2.5 goals, and we follow that lean.

Our Aubagne vs Amiens betting tip: Under 2.5 goals

Our top selection is Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 (53% probability). Amiens have topped 2.5 goals in just one of their previous five games, and two of those five ended without them conceding. Bookmakers also list the under at 1.83, so the pricing and the form point in the same direction.

The main tip collects a win on 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and only falls short on 1-2. All three of the most probable scorelines listed land on the successful side, so we feel confident backing it.

Our second tip: Amiens to win

Amiens are our second selection at 1.83 to take the win (implied chance 51%). They have gone unbeaten in their last five outings, whereas Aubagne have managed just one victory in that span. Amiens sit 8th in the standings with 17 points; Aubagne occupy 17th with 7. On the road, Amiens have recorded one win, four draws and one defeat, which points to a team that holds its form away from home.

The second tip cashes on 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 and fails on 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0. A 1-1 is among the most probable results on the market, which makes it the outcome most likely to sink this selection. Amiens remains our pick at this price, though we advise against heavy staking on both tips at once: a 1-1 defeats the win, whereas a 1-2 defeats the under.

Alternatives we would take from the card

Double chance Draw or Amiens (X2) at 1.22 odds, with a 77% probability, stands out as the most secure selection of the day. It lands whenever the game finishes level or with an Amiens victory, and that fits our assessment that Aubagne are not likely to leave with a meaningful result.

Amiens +0.5 in the Asian handicap market, priced at 1.26 with a 76% probability, lands as long as Amiens do not lose by a margin of one goal or more. That gives the pick more breathing room than a straight-up win bet.

Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a chance of 73%, is a shorter price that sits comfortably beside the main tip.

Most likely score: 0-1 to the visitors

Our call is that the market's most likely score, 0-1, is also the one we would expect to see at Lattre-de-Tassigny, with Amiens winning by a single goal. That lands the main tip and the second tip together, which is the outcome we are backing this Saturday.