Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff), Cardiff take on Birmingham, with Tim Robinson, England in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Birmingham win, a draw. Loses: Birmingham lose.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Cardiff lie 18th, having collected 15 points after 14 matches (3W 6D 5L); Birmingham lie 3rd, having collected 26 points (7W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Cardiff average 1.6 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 1.8 for and 1.0 against for Birmingham.
- Form in the competition. Cardiff: 2W 5D 4L, goals 18–17; Birmingham: 5W 5D 1L, goals 20–11.
- Head to head. In 24 previous meetings, Cardiff have taken 13 wins to Birmingham's 3 wins, plus 8 draws; the goal tally stands at 35–18.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.4%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.45), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 65%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 62%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 24; Cardiff 13 wins, 8 draws, Birmingham 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Cardiff 18–17, Birmingham 20–11.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
- Unavailable: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Alternative tip: Draw or Birmingham (X2)
Another angle: Draw or Birmingham (X2) (probability 63%, top price 1.55). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Cardiff: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham will be without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.65 | 3.88 | 2.57 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.72 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.43 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.50 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.28 | 41.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.67 | 34.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 13:58. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Cardiff 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Cardiff 18th (15 points), Birmingham 3rd (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Cardiff 2W 5D 4L (18:17), Birmingham 5W 5D 1L (20:11).
- H2H: 24 matches: Cardiff 13W 8D 3L, goals 35–18.
- Absences: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Cardiff vs Birmingham: injuries and missing players
Cardiff
- C. Chambersknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lawlorhamstring injury · will miss the match
- G. Oshored card · will miss the match
- R. Colwillankle injury · doubtful
- P. Ngnot in the squad · doubtful
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Cardiff
Home and away
Cardiff vs Birmingham: last matches of both teams
Cardiff
Birmingham
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
CardiffDLWDWBirminghamWWLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Birmingham +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.57); Both teams to score (1.45).
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our estimate gives Cardiff a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Birmingham 38%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 15:00, venue Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Referee: Tim Robinson, England.
Who will be missing?
Cardiff: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.56) and under 2.5 goals at 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 65% (odds 1.45).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.4%), then 1–2 (8.3%) and 2–1 (8.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.