Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Birmingham vs QPR, 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham), with Thomas Kirk, England officiating. The odds point to Birmingham (48%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: QPR win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): QPR lose by 1. Loses: QPR lose by 2 or more.
Birmingham vs QPR: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Birmingham lie 3rd, having collected 26 points after 14 matches (7W 5D 2L); QPR lie 11th, having collected 21 points (5W 6D 3L).
What to expect
In our view Birmingham hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.8%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 52%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
- Unavailable: Birmingham 0, QPR 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 52%, top price 1.87). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Birmingham: no absences. QPR will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Birmingham vs QPR: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.99 | 3.70 | 3.87 |
| Market average | 1.96 | 3.53 | 3.66 |
| Lowest odds | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.25 | 74.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.94 | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 3.06 | 30.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.02 | 45.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Birmingham 1–1 QPR, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Birmingham 3rd (26 points), QPR 11th (21 points).
- Absences: Birmingham 0, QPR 0.
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Birmingham vs QPR: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
Birmingham vs QPR: injuries and missing players
Birmingham
- No reported absences
QPR
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Birmingham
Home and away
Birmingham vs QPR: last matches of both teams
Birmingham
QPR
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Birmingham vs QPR?
QPR +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.69); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
Our estimate gives Birmingham a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and QPR 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 15:00, venue St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Referee: Thomas Kirk, England.
Who will be missing?
Birmingham: no absences. QPR: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.87) and under 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.8%), then 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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