Estoril vs Marítimo: prediction, odds and betting tip – 8 November 2026, Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Marítimo preview and prediction

Estoril and Marítimo meet at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota on 8 November 2026, kick-off 15:30, in Matchweek 11 of the Primeira Liga. The table points one way. Estoril sit 18th with 2 points from 10 games, Marítimo 14th with 8, so the gap in this competition is six points. The bookmakers see it differently, and that split between the table and the market is where we want to play.

Estoril's home record is the warning sign

Estoril have collected 2 points from 10 matches in this competition, and they have not won one of them. At home the picture is no better: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded in the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Over the whole league campaign they have scored 5 times and conceded 19. That is 0.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match, and it is hard to build a plan on those numbers.

Marítimo are not much better in attack, but they are at least harder to beat. They have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats in this competition, and their away record reads 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 12 conceded on the road. They average 0.9 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match. Neither side is a model of efficiency. The difference is that Marítimo have a few more results to show for it.

Five defeats in a row and where they came from

Across all competitions, Estoril have lost each of their last five matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 12. The latest of those was a 4-0 defeat at FC Porto on 31 October, and the one before was a 1-3 loss at home to Moreirense on 25 October. Both teams scored in three of those five games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in four of them. Estoril have been open at the back, and they have struggled to finish when the chances came.

Marítimo's recent run is no pleasure either. Their last five matches, again across all competitions, brought 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 13 conceded. The worst of it was a 5-0 defeat at Vitória SC on 23 October. Their most recent game, a 2-0 home defeat by Santa Clara on 1 November, shows the same problem: they are giving up goals and not making many of their own. Both teams scored in three of their five, and more than 2.5 goals in three.

Those figures are of all competitions, so they will not match the league table. A side can top a league and still struggle in a cup or in Europe, and the reverse is just as true. For this match, the form that matters is the run of results, and both runs are poor.

The last six meetings and who has the better of them

Estoril have the better record against Marítimo over the longer run. In the last 17 meetings Estoril have won 7, drawn 7 and lost 3, with 22 goals scored to Marítimo's 14. The six most recent results we have make the point: Estoril 3-1 Marítimo in May 2023, Marítimo 1-0 Estoril in January 2023, a goalless draw in February 2022, Estoril 2-1 Marítimo in August 2021, Marítimo 1-3 Estoril in January 2021 and a 1-1 draw in April 2018. Estoril have won more of these games than they have lost, and they have usually found the net when they have played Marítimo.

No absences to worry about for either side

There are no reported absences for either team, so the match will be decided by the players who usually start for both sides. That is one less thing to argue about, and it leaves the discussion where it belongs: on the form and the numbers.

What the bookmakers expect from Estoril

The market backs Estoril. Their chance of winning is 45 per cent at best odds of 2.14, against 28 per cent for a Marítimo win at best odds of 3.52 and 27 per cent for a draw at best odds of 3.58. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 7.6 per cent. The expected goals are about 2 for Estoril and 1 for Marítimo, with about 3 goals in total. The most likely exact scores are 1-1 at 12.2 per cent, 1-0 at 10.6 per cent and 2-1 at 9.1 per cent.

On the goals lines, the market has over 1.5 at 74 per cent (best odds 1.31) and over 2.5 at 50 per cent (best odds 1.95). Those are the bookmakers' expectations, not our view. The table says Marítimo are the better side, the odds say Estoril, and we think the odds are closer to the truth than the table.

Our Estoril vs Marítimo betting tip: Estoril -0.25

We are backing Estoril -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88, chance 53 per cent. Half the stake goes on Estoril -0.5 and half on Estoril +0, so a home win by one goal wins outright, while a draw loses only half the stake.

Our case rests on three things. Marítimo have won none of their last five matches, and Estoril have won 7 of the last 17 meetings against Marítimo's 3. The market gives the handicap 53 per cent at best odds of 1.88. Estoril need to win the game, or at least find a goal and hold on, and the home side is the one we trust to do that. The bet settles as follows: 1-0 wins, 2-1 wins, 2-0 wins, 1-1 loses half the stake, 0-0 loses half the stake, and 0-1 loses.

We would not back Marítimo to win on the strength of their last five results, and we would not chase the draw at 3.58 without a stronger reason.

Our second tip: Both teams to score

Our second selection is both teams to score at odds 1.75, chance 54 per cent. Both sides have scored in three of their last five matches in all competitions, and the expected total of about 3 goals suggests the chances will come at both ends. The market rates it at 54 per cent, which is a fair reading.

The weakness is obvious. A single clean sheet by either team kills the bet, and both sides have been losing games by two or more goals recently. It settles this way: 1-1 wins, 2-1 wins, while 1-0, 0-1, 2-0 and 0-0 all lose.

Other bets we like at these prices

If you want a bet with a higher chance, over 1.5 goals at odds 1.31 (chance 74 per cent) fits the expected total and the record of both teams in their recent games. We also like Estoril or draw (1X) at odds 1.33, chance 72 per cent, which covers the home side's most likely outcomes while leaving the handicap as our main view. Both are the sort of bet we would take for a modest stake and sleep on.

A home side that needs to start scoring

Estoril are the side with the market behind them and the better head-to-head record, and Marítimo are the side with the better table position and the better attack. We think the form of both teams is poor enough that the result will turn on who avoids the damaging mistake. Estoril -0.25 is our pick, with both teams to score as the second option for those who believe the goals will come at both ends.