Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stelios Kyriakidis (Paphos), Pafos take on Riga, with Marian Barbu, Romania in charge. We make Pafos (53%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Riga win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Riga lose by 1. Loses: Riga lose by 2 or more.
Pafos vs Riga: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Pafos lie 30th, having collected 1 point after 3 matches (0W 1D 2L); Riga lie 19th, having collected 3 points (0W 3D 0L).
What to expect
In our view Pafos hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.75), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 53%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
- Unavailable: Pafos 0, Riga 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.86). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Pafos: no absences. Riga will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Pafos vs Riga: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.88 | 3.90 | 4.59 |
| Market average | 1.78 | 3.71 | 4.29 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.23 | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.02 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 2.91 | 32.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 22/10/26, 16:28. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Pafos 1–1 Riga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Pafos 30th (1 point), Riga 19th (3 points).
- Absences: Pafos 0, Riga 0.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Pafos vs Riga: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Pafos vs Riga: injuries and missing players
Pafos
- No reported absences
Riga
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | 3-0-0 | 11:4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjällby AIF | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2-0-1 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 2-0-1 | 4:5 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1-1-1 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Riga | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | 0-2-1 | 1:2 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjælland | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 30 | Pafos | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
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Pafos vs Riga: last matches of both teams
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Riga
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Pafos vs Riga?
Riga +0.75 (Asian handicap) (2.04); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
Our estimate gives Pafos a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Riga 22%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 October 2026 at 17:45, venue Stelios Kyriakidis, Paphos. Referee: Marian Barbu, Romania.
Who will be missing?
Pafos: no absences. Riga: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.86) and under 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.