Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel, 1 November 2026 · 12:30 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer (Fürth), with L. Erbst officiating. Expect a tight contest. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Holstein Kiel win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Holstein Kiel lose.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. SpVgg Greuther Fürth lie 9th, having collected 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L); Holstein Kiel lie 18th, having collected 8 points (1W 5D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, SpVgg Greuther Fürth average 1.3 goals for and 1.8 against, compared with 1.1 for and 1.2 against for Holstein Kiel.
- Form in the competition. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: 2W 3D 4L, goals 12–16; Holstein Kiel: 1W 5D 3L, goals 10–11.
- Head to head. In 15 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 6 wins to Holstein Kiel's 5 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 22–22.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 15; SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6 wins, 4 draws, Holstein Kiel 5 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12–16, Holstein Kiel 10–11.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0, Holstein Kiel 0.
Alternative tip: SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw (1X)
Another angle: SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw (1X) (probability 63%, top price 1.55). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for SpVgg Greuther Fürth: no absences. Holstein Kiel will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.60 | 3.77 | 2.66 |
| Market average | 2.51 | 3.63 | 2.52 |
| Lowest odds | 2.40 | 3.39 | 2.42 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 1.55 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.35 | 39.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.38 | 39.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.54 | 36.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 12:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 Holstein Kiel, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9th (12 points), Holstein Kiel 18th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W 3D 4L (12:16), Holstein Kiel 1W 5D 3L (10:11).
- H2H: 15 matches: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6W 4D 5L, goals 22–22.
- Absences: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0, Holstein Kiel 0.
Who will win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel: injuries and missing players
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- No reported absences
Holstein Kiel
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 10 | 9-1-0 | 23:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6-3-1 | 24:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5-4-1 | 25:14 | 19 |
| 4 |  1. FC Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5-3-2 | 9:7 | 18 |
| 5 |  1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5-2-3 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4-3-3 | 17:18 | 15 |
| 7 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4-2-4 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 8 |  FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2-6-2 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3-3-5 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 10 |  Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2-5-4 | 18:20 | 11 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3-2-5 | 14:17 | 11 |
| 13 |  VfL Bochum | 10 | 3-2-5 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Hannover 96 | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 17 |  SV Darmstadt 98 | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1-5-4 | 10:12 | 8 |
Recent matches
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Home and away
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel: last matches of both teams
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SpVgg Greuther FürthLWLWLHolstein KielLWDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.71); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our estimate gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Holstein Kiel 37%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 12:30, venue Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth. Referee: L. Erbst.
Who will be missing?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: no absences. Holstein Kiel: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.61) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.40).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.8%), then 1–2 (8.4%) and 2–1 (8.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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