Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional, 1 November 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Aruca), with Luís Miguel Branco Godinho officiating. The odds point to Arouca (59%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Arouca win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Arouca win by 1. Loses: a draw, Arouca lose.
Arouca vs Nacional: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Arouca lie 5th, having collected 20 points after 11 matches (6W 2D 3L); Nacional lie 15th, having collected 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Arouca average 1.3 goals for and 0.8 against, compared with 1.1 for and 2.0 against for Nacional.
- Form in the competition. Arouca: 5W 2D 2L, goals 12–7; Nacional: 2W 1D 6L, goals 10–18.
- Head to head. In 15 previous meetings, Arouca have taken 8 wins to Nacional's 2 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 24–14.
What to expect
In our view Arouca hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (11.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.90), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 52%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 15; Arouca 8 wins, 5 draws, Nacional 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Arouca 12–7, Nacional 10–18.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
- Unavailable: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 51%, top price 1.87). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Arouca: no absences. Nacional will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Arouca vs Nacional: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.71 | 4.24 | 5.78 |
| Market average | 1.59 | 3.99 | 5.39 |
| Lowest odds | 1.53 | 3.46 | 4.29 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.84 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.96 | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.04 | 30.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 13:45. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Arouca 1–0 Nacional, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Arouca 5th (20 points), Nacional 15th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Arouca 5W 2D 2L (12:7), Nacional 2W 1D 6L (10:18).
- H2H: 15 matches: Arouca 8W 5D 2L, goals 24–14.
- Absences: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Arouca vs Nacional: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Arouca vs Nacional: injuries and missing players
Arouca
- No reported absences
Nacional
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Arouca
Home and away
Arouca vs Nacional: last matches of both teams
Arouca
Nacional
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AroucaLWWWDNacionalLWLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.95); Over 2.5 goals (1.90).
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Our estimate gives Arouca a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional 18%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 15:30, venue Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca. Referee: Luís Miguel Branco Godinho.
Who will be missing?
Arouca: no absences. Nacional: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.90) and under 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.87).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (11.8%), then 2–0 (10.9%) and 1–1 (10.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.