Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Famalicão vs Arouca, 6 November 2026 · 20:45 at Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho (Vila Nova de Famalicão), with Gustavo Fernandes Correia officiating. Expect a tight contest. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Arouca win, a draw. Loses: Arouca lose.
Famalicão vs Arouca: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Famalicão lie 10th, having collected 13 points after 11 matches (3W 4D 4L); Arouca lie 5th, having collected 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Famalicão average 1.4 goals for and 1.4 against, compared with 1.3 for and 0.7 against for Arouca.
- Form in the competition. Famalicão: 2W 4D 4L, goals 14–14; Arouca: 6W 2D 2L, goals 13–7.
- Head to head. In 15 previous meetings, Famalicão have taken 5 wins to Arouca's 6 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 14–15.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (13.0%). This one looks finely poised.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Arouca, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.71), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 50%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 43%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 15; Famalicão 5 wins, 4 draws, Arouca 6 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Famalicão 14–14, Arouca 13–7.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
- Unavailable: Famalicão 0, Arouca 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 50%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Famalicão: no absences. Arouca will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Famalicão vs Arouca: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.67 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Market average | 2.54 | 3.11 | 2.87 |
| Lowest odds | 2.41 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 68.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.20 | 43.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.66 | 57.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.20 | 4.01 | 23.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.86 | 50.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.86 | 50.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 6/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Famalicão 1–1 Arouca, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Famalicão 10th (13 points), Arouca 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Famalicão 2W 4D 4L (14:14), Arouca 6W 2D 2L (13:7).
- H2H: 15 matches: Famalicão 5W 4D 6L, goals 14–15.
- Absences: Famalicão 0, Arouca 0.
Who will win Famalicão vs Arouca?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Famalicão vs Arouca: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Famalicão vs Arouca: injuries and missing players
Famalicão
- No reported absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Famalicão
Home and away
Famalicão vs Arouca: last matches of both teams
Famalicão
Arouca
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FamalicãoWLWLWAroucaLWWWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Famalicão vs Arouca?
Arouca +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.61); Under 2.5 goals (1.71).
Who will win Famalicão vs Arouca?
Our estimate gives Famalicão a 37% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Arouca 33%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 6 November 2026 at 20:45, venue Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão. Referee: Gustavo Fernandes Correia.
Who will be missing?
Famalicão: no absences. Arouca: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.28) and under 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.71).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 50% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (13.0%), then 1–0 (11.3%) and 0–1 (10.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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