Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Auxerre vs Paris FC (Ligue 1, 7 November 2026, 18:00): Paris FC to win at odds of 1.87. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.47. The bookmakers' odds give Auxerre 23%, the draw 25% and Paris FC 53%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Auxerre vs Paris FC preview and prediction
Can Paris FC turn a useful away record into a win at Auxerre, or will the home side's habit of leaking goals hand them a result? That is the question this Ligue 1 Matchweek 10 meeting turns on, at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps on 7 November 2026, kick-off 16:15.
The key facts
- Likely result: Auxerre 1–1 Paris FC, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Auxerre 14th (10 points), Paris FC 4th (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Auxerre 3W 1D 5L (13:23), Paris FC 5W 2D 2L (16:10).
- H2H: 15 matches: Auxerre 4W 6D 5L, goals 16–16.
- Absences: Auxerre 0, Paris FC 0.
Auxerre's leaky defence against a sharper table
Auxerre sit 14th with 10 points from nine matches in this competition, a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats. They have scored 13 and conceded 23, so the defensive problem is the story here. At home they are 2-1-1, with five goals scored and five conceded.
Paris FC are fourth with 17 points from nine, 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, and 16 goals against 10. Away they are 1-1-2 with four scored and five conceded, so they are not invincible on the road either. But the gap in how the two teams keep the ball out is wide. Auxerre concede 2.6 per match, Paris FC 1.1.
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Recent form: two unsteady sides
Auxerre's last five matches across all competitions brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with eight goals scored and twelve conceded. The most recent was a 5-1 defeat at Strasbourg on 1 November 2026. Before that, a 1-1 draw with Le Mans at home and a 3-1 win at Le Havre on 18 October 2026 stand out. The 4-1 defeat at Rennes on 11 October is a reminder of how easily they can ship goals.
Paris FC have won three of their last five in all competitions, losing two, with ten scored and eight conceded. The 3-1 home win over Monaco on 1 November 2026 is the result we trust most. Their 2-1 defeat at Lens on 24 October and the 1-0 loss at Lorient on 10 October show they can be stopped.
Meetings that stay close
The last 15 meetings are finely balanced: Auxerre have won four, Paris FC five, and six have ended level, with 16 goals each. The most recent one, a goalless draw at Auxerre on 8 February 2026, was a tight affair. Earlier, Paris FC won 2-1 at Auxerre on 1 February 2022 and Auxerre won 2-0 at home in May 2024. There is no clear pattern of dominance, which is exactly why we are reluctant to lean too hard on history.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Auxerre
Home and away
Auxerre vs Paris FC: last matches of both teams
Auxerre
Paris FC
Injury news and what the prices say
Neither side has any absentees reported, so the team sheets should be close to full strength. The bookmakers make Paris FC the favourites at a 53% chance and best odds of 1.87, with Auxerre at 23% (best odds 4.50) and the draw at 25% (best odds 4.11). The bookmaker margin on the match result is 6.0%. Those numbers describe what the market expects; they are not a guarantee.
The Asian handicap line tells a similar story. Paris FC -0.5 is priced at 54% (odds 1.79), and Auxerre +1.5 at 69% (odds 1.40). The market expects a Paris FC win, and expects it to be by a goal or so rather than a rout. Expected goals sit at Auxerre 1 and Paris FC 2, roughly three in total.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.50 | 4.05 | 1.87 |
| Market average | 4.22 | 3.86 | 1.79 |
| Lowest odds | 3.71 | 3.32 | 1.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.73 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.14 | 44.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.82 | 2.72 | 34.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.64 | 56.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.14 | 43.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 05:05. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.6%.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: injuries and missing players
Auxerre
- No reported absences
Paris FC
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Our Auxerre vs Paris FC betting tip: Paris FC to win
We like Paris FC to win, and we back it at the main price. Paris FC have won three of their last five in all competitions and sit ten places and seven points above Auxerre in the league table. They have also won five of the last 15 meetings against Auxerre's four. Add the market's 53% and the best odds of 1.87, and the case is clear enough without overreaching.
Paris FC to win at odds 1.87 (chance 53%)
The risk is the scoreline. A 1-1 or a 2-1 home win for Auxerre would lose us the bet, and the likeliest exact score of 1-1 sits at 10.9%. We accept that, because Auxerre's defence has been leaking goals and Paris FC's has not.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AuxerreLDWLWParis FCWLWLWSecond tip: under 3.5 and a few alternatives
Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at 1.47, which the market gives a 65% chance. The bet wins on 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 and 2-1, so it covers every one of the three most likely scores. We would not back an over here at these prices.
Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.47 (chance 65%)
If you want more, we would consider a few of the other lines:
- Draw or Paris FC (X2) at odds 1.26.
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.24, which the market rates at 77%.
- Auxerre +1.75 at odds 1.27, a split between +1.5 and +2 that holds up if they lose only by a single goal.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Head to head
All matchesVerdict: a Paris FC win and a low total
We expect Paris FC to find a way through, probably by a single goal, and we would not expect Auxerre to keep them out for long. The bet we trust most is Paris FC to win at 1.87, with under 3.5 goals as the companion. The table, the form and the market all point the same way, and the only real danger is a home side that scores enough to hurt them.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Paris FC to win (1.87); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our estimate gives Auxerre a 23% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paris FC 53%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 7 November 2026 at 18:00, venue Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Referee: Marc Bollengier.
Who will be missing?
Auxerre: no absences. Paris FC: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.77) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.9%), then 0–1 (9.9%) and 1–2 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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