Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 24 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens), Lens take on Paris FC, with M. Vernice in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Paris FC win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Paris FC lose.
Lens vs Paris FC: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lens lie 9th, having collected 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L); Paris FC lie 4th, having collected 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Lens average 2.0 goals for and 1.6 against, compared with 1.7 for and 1.0 against for Paris FC.
- Form in the competition. Lens: 3W 1D 3L, goals 14–11; Paris FC: 4W 2D 1L, goals 12–7.
- Head to head. In 14 previous meetings, Lens have taken 7 wins to Paris FC's 3 wins, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 18–10.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.4%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Paris FC, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 62%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 58%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 14; Lens 7 wins, 4 draws, Paris FC 3 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Lens 14–11, Paris FC 12–7.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
- Unavailable: Lens 5, Paris FC 2.
Alternative tip: Lens or draw (1X)
Another angle: Lens or draw (1X) (probability 64%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lens: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, J. Gradit, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Paris FC will be without: J. Ikone, N. Sangui. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lens vs Paris FC: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.65 | 3.66 | 2.77 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.53 | 2.69 |
| Lowest odds | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.19 | 79.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.64 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.36 | 2.27 | 42.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.64 | 2.53 | 37.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.50 | 62.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.45 | 37.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Paris FC, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Paris FC 4th (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Lens 3W 1D 3L (14:11), Paris FC 4W 2D 1L (12:7).
- H2H: 14 matches: Lens 7W 4D 3L, goals 18–10.
- Absences: Lens 5, Paris FC 2.
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lens vs Paris FC: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lens vs Paris FC: injuries and missing players
Lens
- O. Edouardinjury · will miss the match
- I. Ganiouknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Graditmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Nawrockiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Simamuscle injury · will miss the match
Paris FC
- J. Ikonethigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Sanguimuscle injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lens
Home and away
Lens vs Paris FC: last matches of both teams
Lens
Paris FC
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LensLWWWLParis FCWLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lens vs Paris FC?
Paris FC +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Under 3.5 goals (1.54).
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
Our estimate gives Lens a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Paris FC 36%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. Referee: M. Vernice.
Who will be missing?
Lens: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, J. Gradit, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Paris FC: J. Ikone, N. Sangui. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.69) and under 2.5 goals at 42% (odds 2.36).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 62% (odds 1.53).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.4%), then 2–1 (8.5%) and 1–2 (8.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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