Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich), Bolton take on Bristol City, with Bobby Madley in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Bolton vs Bristol City: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bolton lie 17th, having collected 17 points after 15 matches (5W 2D 8L); Bristol City lie 15th, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bolton average 1.3 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 1.0 for and 1.3 against for Bristol City.
- Form in the competition. Bolton: 4W 2D 6L, goals 16–23; Bristol City: 4W 3D 5L, goals 12–15.
- Head to head. In 10 previous meetings, Bolton have taken 3 wins to Bristol City's 5 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 12–20.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.2%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.67), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 52%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 10; Bolton 3 wins, 2 draws, Bristol City 5 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bolton 16–23, Bristol City 12–15.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
- Unavailable: Bolton 5, Bristol City 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 52%, top price 1.87). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bolton: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Bristol City will be without: N. Eile, E. Adebayo, R. Dickie, L. Tolaj. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bolton vs Bristol City: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.05 | 3.52 | 2.40 |
| Market average | 2.94 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Lowest odds | 2.64 | 3.08 | 2.23 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.80 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.99 | 47.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.15 | 2.96 | 31.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.17 | 42.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 13:40. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bolton 1–1 Bristol City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Bolton 17th (17 points), Bristol City 15th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Bolton 4W 2D 6L (16:23), Bristol City 4W 3D 5L (12:15).
- H2H: 10 matches: Bolton 3W 2D 5L, goals 12–20.
- Absences: Bolton 5, Bristol City 4.
Who will win Bolton vs Bristol City?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bolton vs Bristol City: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bolton vs Bristol City: injuries and missing players
Bolton
- E. Erhahonthigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Hardiehamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. McAteeknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury · doubtful
Bristol City
- N. Eileillness · will miss the match
- E. Adebayonot in the squad · doubtful
- R. Dickieknee injury · doubtful
- L. Tolajabsence · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bolton
Home and away
Bolton vs Bristol City: last matches of both teams
Bolton
Bristol City
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BoltonLWLLDBristol CityLWDLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bolton vs Bristol City?
Bolton or draw (1X) (1.67); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Bolton vs Bristol City?
Our estimate gives Bolton a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bristol City 41%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 15:00, venue Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Referee: Bobby Madley.
Who will be missing?
Bolton: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Bristol City: N. Eile, E. Adebayo, R. Dickie, L. Tolaj. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.87) and under 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.2%), then 0–1 (9.7%) and 1–2 (8.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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