Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Burnley welcome Wolves on 16 October 2026 · 20:00 at Turf Moor (Burnley), and the referee is Lewis Smith, England. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Burnley vs Wolves: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Burnley lie 22nd, having collected 10 points after 14 matches (1W 7D 6L); Wolves lie 2nd, having collected 27 points (8W 3D 3L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.62), which we give a 58% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 54%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
- Unavailable: Burnley 0, Wolves 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 54%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Burnley: no absences. Wolves will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Burnley vs Wolves: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.07 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Market average | 2.98 | 3.51 | 2.26 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.18 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.23 | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.76 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.03 | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 2.81 | 33.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.60 | 58.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.21 | 42.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 16/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Burnley 1–1 Wolves, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Burnley 22nd (10 points), Wolves 2nd (27 points).
- Absences: Burnley 0, Wolves 0.
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Burnley vs Wolves: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
Burnley vs Wolves: injuries and missing players
Burnley
- No reported absences
Wolves
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 | Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Burnley
Home and away
Burnley vs Wolves: last matches of both teams
Burnley
Wolves
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Burnley vs Wolves?
Over 2.5 goals (1.85); Draw or Wolves (X2) (1.36).
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our estimate gives Burnley a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Wolves 42%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 16 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Turf Moor, Burnley. Referee: Lewis Smith, England.
Who will be missing?
Burnley: no absences. Wolves: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.85) and under 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.9%), then 0–1 (9.1%) and 1–2 (8.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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