Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 29 October 2026 · 19:00 at Estadio El Bayu (Pola de Siero), Covadonga take on Valladolid. We make Valladolid (78%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, Covadonga have taken 0 wins to Valladolid's 1 win, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 0–1.
What to expect
In our view Valladolid hold the advantage. We project a 1–3 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 0–2 (12.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.22), the goals markets are also worth considering: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 45%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 63%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; Covadonga 0 wins, 0 draws, Valladolid 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
- Unavailable: Covadonga 0, Valladolid 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, top price 1.63). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Covadonga: no absences. Valladolid will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 14.25 | 7.00 | 1.22 |
| Market average | 12.73 | 6.29 | 1.20 |
| Lowest odds | 10.75 | 5.80 | 1.17 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.18 | 42.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.73 | 1.69 | 54.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 29/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Covadonga 0–2 Valladolid, roughly 4 goals in total.
- H2H: 1 match: Covadonga 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–1.
- Absences: Covadonga 0, Valladolid 0.
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Covadonga vs Valladolid: injuries and missing players
Covadonga
- No reported absences
Valladolid
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: last matches of both teams
Covadonga
Valladolid
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Covadonga +2 (Asian handicap) (1.80); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Our estimate gives Covadonga a 7% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Valladolid 78%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 29 October 2026 at 19:00, venue Estadio El Bayu, Pola de Siero.
Who will be missing?
Covadonga: no absences. Valladolid: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.50) and under 2.5 goals at 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 45% (odds 2.20).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–2 (12.6%), then 0–3 (10.7%) and 0–1 (9.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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