Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–6. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Midtjylland welcome Ajax on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at MCH Arena (Herning), and the referee is Paweł Raczkowski, Poland. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Ajax win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Ajax lose.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. FC Midtjylland lie 34th, having collected 1 point after 3 matches (0W 1D 2L); Ajax lie 11th, having collected 6 points (2W 0D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, FC Midtjylland average 2.0 goals for and 0.8 against, compared with 3.1 for and 1.5 against for Ajax.
- Form in the competition. FC Midtjylland: 4W 1D 1L, goals 12–5; Ajax: 6W 1D 1L, goals 25–12.
- Head to head. In 2 previous meetings, FC Midtjylland have taken 0 wins to Ajax's 2 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 2–5.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (9.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we give a 67% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 68%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 67%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 2; FC Midtjylland 0 wins, 0 draws, Ajax 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: FC Midtjylland 12–5, Ajax 25–12.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
- Unavailable: FC Midtjylland 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for FC Midtjylland: no absences. Ajax will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.15 | 4.07 | 2.22 |
| Market average | 3.00 | 3.86 | 2.11 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.01 | 2.83 | 33.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 2.00 | 47.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 68.1% |
| BTTS – no | 3.20 | 2.90 | 31.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 16:16. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: FC Midtjylland 1–1 Ajax, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FC Midtjylland 34th (1 point), Ajax 11th (6 points).
- Form in the competition: FC Midtjylland 4W 1D 1L (12:5), Ajax 6W 1D 1L (25:12).
- H2H: 2 matches: FC Midtjylland 0W 0D 2L, goals 2–5.
- Absences: FC Midtjylland 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: injuries and missing players
FC Midtjylland
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | 3-0-0 | 11:4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjällby AIF | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2-0-1 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 2-0-1 | 4:5 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1-1-1 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | 0-2-1 | 1:2 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjælland | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
FC Midtjylland
Home and away
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: last matches of both teams
FC Midtjylland
Ajax
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FC MidtjyllandLLDAjaxWWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Ajax -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Over 2.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Our estimate gives FC Midtjylland a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ajax 44%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 17:45, venue MCH Arena, Herning. Referee: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland.
Who will be missing?
FC Midtjylland: no absences. Ajax: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.45) and under 2.5 goals at 33% (odds 3.01).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (9.6%), then 1–2 (8.9%) and 2–1 (7.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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