Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar, 31 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), with Allard Lindhout officiating. The odds point to Ajax (54%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Ajax win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Ajax win by 1. Loses: a draw, Ajax lose.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Ajax lie 2nd, having collected 24 points after 11 matches (7W 3D 1L); AZ Alkmaar lie 5th, having collected 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Ajax average 2.9 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 2.0 for and 1.2 against for AZ Alkmaar.
- Form in the competition. Ajax: 6W 3D 1L, goals 29–13; AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. In 37 previous meetings, Ajax have taken 15 wins to AZ Alkmaar's 14 wins, plus 8 draws; the goal tally stands at 62–48.
What to expect
In our view Ajax hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 67%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 69%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 37; Ajax 15 wins, 8 draws, AZ Alkmaar 14 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Ajax 29–13, AZ Alkmaar 20–12.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
- Unavailable: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, top price 2.07). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. AZ Alkmaar will be without: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.80 | 4.55 | 4.18 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.28 | 3.98 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.81 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.36 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.01 | 31.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.07 | 1.96 | 48.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.42 | 1.39 | 66.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.80 | 33.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 13:04. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 2nd (24 points), AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Ajax 6W 3D 1L (29:13), AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 37 matches: Ajax 15W 8D 14L, goals 62–48.
- Absences: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: injuries and missing players
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- A. Oufkirabsence · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Zoetnot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Goesnot in the squad · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: last matches of both teams
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AjaxWWWDDAZ AlkmaarLLDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Under 3.5 goals (1.87).
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our estimate gives Ajax a 54% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AZ Alkmaar 24%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: Allard Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 69% (odds 1.41) and under 2.5 goals at 31% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 67% (odds 1.42).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.3%), then 1–1 (8.6%) and 3–1 (6.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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