Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 31 October 2026 · 15:30 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas (Guimarães), Moreirense take on Estrela, with Joao Pinheiro in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Moreirense win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Moreirense lose.
Moreirense vs Estrela: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Moreirense lie 9th, having collected 14 points after 10 matches (4W 2D 4L); Estrela lie 12th, having collected 10 points (2W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Moreirense average 1.2 goals for and 1.8 against, compared with 1.6 for and 1.9 against for Estrela.
- Form in the competition. Moreirense: 3W 2D 4L, goals 11–16; Estrela: 2W 4D 3L, goals 14–17.
- Head to head. In 10 previous meetings, Moreirense have taken 5 wins to Estrela's 1 win, plus 4 draws; the goal tally stands at 18–12.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.9%). This one looks finely poised.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Moreirense, but the bookmakers make the away side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.82), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 52%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 46%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 10; Moreirense 5 wins, 4 draws, Estrela 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Moreirense 11–16, Estrela 14–17.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
- Unavailable: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 52%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Moreirense: no absences. Estrela will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Moreirense vs Estrela: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.21 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| Market average | 2.97 | 3.22 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.58 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.07 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.75 | 54.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.82 | 3.71 | 25.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.93 | 48.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 14:10. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Moreirense 1–1 Estrela, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Moreirense 9th (14 points), Estrela 12th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Moreirense 3W 2D 4L (11:16), Estrela 2W 4D 3L (14:17).
- H2H: 10 matches: Moreirense 5W 4D 1L, goals 18–12.
- Absences: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Moreirense vs Estrela: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Moreirense vs Estrela: injuries and missing players
Moreirense
- No reported absences
Estrela
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Moreirense
Home and away
Moreirense vs Estrela: last matches of both teams
Moreirense
Estrela
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MoreirenseWWLDWEstrelaLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Moreirense vs Estrela?
Moreirense +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Under 2.5 goals (1.82).
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
Our estimate gives Moreirense a 32% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Estrela 39%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 15:30, venue Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães. Referee: Joao Pinheiro.
Who will be missing?
Moreirense: no absences. Estrela: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.17) and under 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.82).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 52% (odds 1.85).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.9%), then 0–1 (11.2%) and 1–0 (9.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.