Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estrela welcome Casa Pia on 24 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio José Gomes (Amadora), and the referee is B. J. Costa. Estrela (53%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Estrela win. Loses: a draw, Estrela lose.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Estrela lie 12th, having collected 10 points after 10 matches (2W 4D 4L); Casa Pia lie 17th, having collected 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Estrela average 1.8 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 0.4 for and 2.1 against for Casa Pia.
- Form in the competition. Estrela: 2W 4D 2L, goals 14–15; Casa Pia: 1W 1D 6L, goals 3–17.
- Head to head. In 11 previous meetings, Estrela have taken 5 wins to Casa Pia's 5 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 16–14.
What to expect
In our view Estrela hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.4%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.81), which we give a 53% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 53%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 50%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 11; Estrela 5 wins, 1 draw, Casa Pia 5 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Estrela 14–15, Casa Pia 3–17.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
- Unavailable: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.96). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Estrela: no absences. Casa Pia will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.84 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 3.59 | 4.55 |
| Lowest odds | 1.74 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.89 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.19 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.81 | 1.77 | 52.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.96 | 47.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 14:24. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estrela 12th (10 points), Casa Pia 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Estrela 2W 4D 2L (14:15), Casa Pia 1W 1D 6L (3:17).
- H2H: 11 matches: Estrela 5W 1D 5L, goals 16–14.
- Absences: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Estrela vs Casa Pia: injuries and missing players
Estrela
- No reported absences
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estrela
Home and away
Estrela vs Casa Pia: last matches of both teams
Estrela
Casa Pia
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
EstrelaLLLLDCasa PiaLWLWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.81).
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our estimate gives Estrela a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 21%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 15:30, venue Estádio José Gomes, Amadora. Referee: B. J. Costa.
Who will be missing?
Estrela: no absences. Casa Pia: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.96) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.98).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 53% (odds 1.81).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.4%), then 1–0 (11.4%) and 2–1 (9.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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