Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 13:30 at Stadion de Goffert (Nijmegen), NEC Nijmegen take on Groningen, with Martin Van den Kerkhof in charge. We make NEC Nijmegen (46%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Groningen win, a draw. Loses: Groningen lose.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. NEC Nijmegen lie 14th, having collected 11 points after 11 matches (2W 5D 4L); Groningen lie 8th, having collected 15 points (4W 3D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, NEC Nijmegen average 1.7 goals for and 1.8 against, compared with 2.4 for and 2.1 against for Groningen.
- Form in the competition. NEC Nijmegen: 2W 4D 3L, goals 15–16; Groningen: 4W 2D 3L, goals 22–19.
- Head to head. In 24 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have taken 10 wins to Groningen's 7 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 47–39.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (9.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Groningen, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 69%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 67%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 24; NEC Nijmegen 10 wins, 7 draws, Groningen 7 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.6 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: NEC Nijmegen 15–16, Groningen 22–19.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
- Unavailable: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, top price 2.05). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Groningen will be without: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.10 | 4.10 | 3.31 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.94 | 3.17 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.39 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.95 | 31.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 12:59. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Groningen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: NEC Nijmegen 14th (11 points), Groningen 8th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: NEC Nijmegen 2W 4D 3L (15:16), Groningen 4W 2D 3L (22:19).
- H2H: 24 matches: NEC Nijmegen 10W 7D 7L, goals 47–39.
- Absences: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: injuries and missing players
NEC Nijmegen
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · doubtful
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
NEC Nijmegen
Home and away
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: last matches of both teams
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
NEC NijmegenLDDDDGroningenLDLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Groningen +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Under 3.5 goals (1.88).
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our estimate gives NEC Nijmegen a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Groningen 30%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 13:30, venue Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof.
Who will be missing?
NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.42) and under 2.5 goals at 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 69% (odds 1.36).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (9.3%), then 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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