Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Real Madrid welcome Sevilla on 18 October 2026 · 20:00 at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium (Madrid), and the referee is Mateo Busquets Ferrer. Real Madrid (78%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Real Madrid win by 2 or more. Loses: Real Madrid win by 1, a draw, Real Madrid lose.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Real Madrid lie 3rd, having collected 27 points after 11 matches (9W 0D 2L); Sevilla lie 6th, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 4L).
What to expect
In our view Real Madrid hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (11.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.27), the goals markets are also worth considering: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.91), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 50%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 68%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
- Unavailable: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 50%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Real Madrid: no absences. Sevilla will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.27 | 7.21 | 13.00 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 6.84 | 11.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.39 | 1.38 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | 2.93 | 32.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 48.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.87 | 49.7% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 18/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Real Madrid 3rd (27 points), Sevilla 6th (18 points).
- Absences: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: injuries and missing players
Real Madrid
- No reported absences
Sevilla
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Real Madrid
Home and away
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: last matches of both teams
Real Madrid
Sevilla
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid -1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.70); Under 3.5 goals (1.91).
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our estimate gives Real Madrid a 78% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Sevilla 8%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 18 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer.
Who will be missing?
Real Madrid: no absences. Sevilla: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.39) and under 2.5 goals at 32% (odds 3.20).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 50% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–0 (11.0%), then 3–0 (9.9%) and 2–1 (8.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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