Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 26 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán (Seville), Sevilla take on Osasuna, with Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias in charge. We make Sevilla (52%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sevilla lie 6th, having collected 18 points after 12 matches (5W 3D 4L); Osasuna lie 15th, having collected 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sevilla average 1.6 goals for and 1.8 against, compared with 1.1 for and 2.0 against for Osasuna.
- Form in the competition. Sevilla: 4W 2D 3L, goals 14–16; Osasuna: 3W 2D 4L, goals 10–18.
- Head to head. In 26 previous meetings, Sevilla have taken 13 wins to Osasuna's 7 wins, plus 6 draws; the goal tally stands at 39–25.
What to expect
In our view Sevilla hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–0 (14.3%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.77), which we give a 57% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 47%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 43%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 26; Sevilla 13 wins, 6 draws, Osasuna 7 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sevilla 14–16, Osasuna 10–18.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
- Unavailable: Sevilla 2, Osasuna 4.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 53%, top price 1.80). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sevilla: Marcao, M. Sierra. Osasuna will be without: A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo, J. Herrando, A. Oroz. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.94 | 3.60 | 5.08 |
| Market average | 1.82 | 3.48 | 4.77 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 68.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.21 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.68 | 56.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.33 | 3.91 | 24.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.02 | 1.98 | 47.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.80 | 1.76 | 53.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 26/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sevilla 1–0 Osasuna, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sevilla 6th (18 points), Osasuna 15th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Sevilla 4W 2D 3L (14:16), Osasuna 3W 2D 4L (10:18).
- H2H: 26 matches: Sevilla 13W 6D 7L, goals 39–25.
- Absences: Sevilla 2, Osasuna 4.
Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sevilla vs Osasuna: injuries and missing players
Sevilla
- Marcaomuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Sierrashoulder injury · will miss the match
Osasuna
- A. Bonelnot in the squad · will miss the match
- R. Del Castillomuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Herrandomuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Orozhamstring injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sevilla
Home and away
Sevilla vs Osasuna: last matches of both teams
Sevilla
Osasuna
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SevillaDLWLDOsasunaLLWLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla to win (1.94); Under 2.5 goals (1.77).
Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our estimate gives Sevilla a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Osasuna 20%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 26 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville. Referee: Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias.
Who will be missing?
Sevilla: Marcao, M. Sierra. Osasuna: A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo, J. Herrando, A. Oroz. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.31) and under 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.77).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 47% (odds 2.02).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (14.3%), then 1–1 (12.2%) and 2–0 (10.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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