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UEFA Europa League · league phase, matchday 4 · 5 November 2026 · 17:45

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: prediction, odds and betting tip – 5 November 2026, UEFA Europa League

1–1
DLWW
1Real Sociedad1.85
XDraw4.61
2Lyon5.55

Top price available · Updated 5/11/26, 16:17

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Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

Real Sociedad welcome Lyon on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at Anoeta Stadium (San Sebastián), and the referee is Anastasios Papapetrou. Real Sociedad (60%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: tip and prediction
Main tip · Result
Real Sociedad to win
1.85
Chance 60% · confidence medium
Second tip · Goals
Over 2.5 goals
1.52
Chance 64% · confidence medium
Combo
Real Sociedad with over 2.5 goals
2.29
44% · combo fair odds
2–1likely score
≈ 3 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Real Sociedad or draw (1X) at a probability of 81%, with odds of up to 1.18.
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Real Sociedad vs Lyon: our analysis

Why we chose this tip

  1. Table. Real Sociedad lie 20th, having collected 5 points after 4 matches (1W 2D 1L); Lyon lie 13th, having collected 7 points (2W 1D 1L).
  2. Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Real Sociedad average 2.7 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 1.7 for and 2.0 against for Lyon.
  3. Form in the competition. Real Sociedad: 1W 1D 1L, goals 8–3; Lyon: 2W 0D 1L, goals 5–6.
  4. Head to head. In 2 previous meetings, Real Sociedad have taken 2 wins to Lyon's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 4–0.

What to expect

In our view Real Sociedad hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.

On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 61%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.

The prediction at a glance

  1. Meetings: 2; Real Sociedad 2 wins, 0 draws, Lyon 0 wins.
  2. Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
  3. Scored and conceded in this competition: Real Sociedad 8–3, Lyon 5–6.
  4. Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
  5. Unavailable: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.

Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes

Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 61%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.

Absences

Unavailable for Real Sociedad: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan. Lyon will be without: S. Kango, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, T. Morton. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: bookmaker odds side by side

Match result1X2
Top price available1.854.615.55
Market average1.604.385.15
Lowest odds1.513.954.10
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.161.1382.7%
Over 2.5 goals1.521.4863.8%
Under 2.5 goals2.802.6136.2%
Over 3.5 goals2.292.2243.0%
BTTS – yes1.571.5360.8%
BTTS – no2.632.3739.2%

Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 16:17. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.0%.

All bookmakers →

The key facts

  • Likely result: Real Sociedad 2–1 Lyon, roughly 3 goals in total.
  • Table: Real Sociedad 20th (5 points), Lyon 13th (7 points).
  • Form in the competition: Real Sociedad 1W 1D 1L (8:3), Lyon 2W 0D 1L (5:6).
  • H2H: 2 matches: Real Sociedad 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–0.
  • Absences: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Real Sociedad60%
Draw22%
Lyon19%

We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: more betting tips

Over 1.5 goals82.7% · fair odds 1.21 · best 1.16
Likely
Real Sociedad or draw (1X)81.4% · fair odds 1.23 · best 1.18
Likely
Over 2.5 goals63.8% · fair odds 1.57 · best 1.52
Likely
Both teams to score: yes60.8% · fair odds 1.65 · best 1.57
Likely
Real Sociedad to win59.6% · fair odds 1.68 · best 1.85
Possible
Under 3.5 goals57.0% · fair odds 1.76 · best 1.71
Possible
Over 3.5 goals43.0% · fair odds 2.32 · best 2.29
Outsider
Both teams to score: no39.2% · fair odds 2.55 · best 2.63
Outsider
Under 2.5 goals36.2% · fair odds 2.77 · best 2.80
Outsider
Draw21.8% · fair odds 4.59 · best 4.61
Outsider
Lyon to win18.6% · fair odds 5.37 · best 5.55
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.

Corners and cards betting

Cornersline 9.5 corners
Over 1.76 · Under 1.99
probability of over 53.1%
Cardsline 3.5 cards
Over 1.62 · Under 2.23
probability of over 58.0%

Correct score tips

2 : 19.8%
1 : 19.1%
2 : 08.5%
1 : 07.9%
3 : 17.0%
3 : 06.1%

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: injuries and missing players

Real Sociedad

  • A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
  • L. Beitiaankle injury · doubtful
  • A. Zakharyanankle injury · doubtful

Lyon

  • S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
  • L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
  • M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
  • P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
  • T. Mortongroin injury · doubtful

Team news can still change before the game.

Standings and form

#TeamPW-D-LGoalsPts
1Benfica44-0-013:312
2Bournemouth44-0-011:212
3Ferencvárosi TC44-0-011:312
4Union Saint-Gilloise43-1-010:210
5Juventus43-1-011:410
6Olympiakos Piraeus43-1-04:110
7Bayer Leverkusen43-0-18:19
8Beşiktaş42-1-111:87
9Dinamo Zagreb42-1-15:47
10Levski Sofia42-1-14:37
11Sunderland42-1-14:47
12NEC Nijmegen42-1-18:97
13Lyon42-1-16:77
14AZ Alkmaar42-0-27:46
15Anderlecht42-0-26:36
16OFI42-0-25:46
17Rennes41-3-04:36
18Omonia Nicosia42-0-26:76
19Torreense42-0-27:96
20Real Sociedad41-2-19:45
21Crystal Palace41-2-19:65
22Sparta Praha41-1-26:64
231899 Hoffenheim41-1-26:64
24Sturm Graz41-1-23:64
25Celje41-1-25:94
26Red Bull Salzburg41-1-23:84
27Celta Vigo41-0-34:63
28AC Milan41-0-34:73
29Jagiellonia41-0-34:73
30Plzeň41-0-33:73
31Marseille41-0-32:63
32Celtic41-0-36:113
33Hapoel Beer Sheva40-1-31:81
34Lillestrøm40-1-32:101
35Lech Poznań40-1-32:121
36Ararat-Armenia40-0-44:140

Recent matches

Real Sociedad

5 NovDReal Sociedad 1–1 Lyon
1 NovLAthletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad
25 OctWReal Sociedad 2–1 Levante
22 OctWLillestrøm 0–6 Real Sociedad
18 OctWMálaga 2–5 Real Sociedad

Lyon

5 NovDReal Sociedad 1–1 Lyon
1 NovWLyon 2–0 Angers
26 OctLParis Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon
22 OctL1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Lyon
18 OctWLyon 2–1 Nice

Home and away

Real Sociedad at home2 matches: 0W 1D 1L, goals 2–3
Lyon away3 matches: 1W 1D 1L, goals 3–5

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: last matches of both teams

Real Sociedad

L 1/11/26 · Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad
W 25/10/26 · Real Sociedad 2–1 Levante
W 22/10/26 · Lillestrøm 0–6 Real Sociedad
W 18/10/26 · Málaga 2–5 Real Sociedad

Lyon

W 1/11/26 · Lyon 2–0 Angers
L 26/10/26 · Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon
L 22/10/26 · 1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Lyon
W 18/10/26 · Lyon 2–1 Nice

Team comparison

Real SociedadLyon
40%Form60%
62%Attack38%
67%Defence33%
100%Head to head0%
100%Goals0%
53.0%Overall47.0%

All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.

Form in the competition

Real SociedadDWDL
LyonDLWW

Head to head

All matches
2Real Sociedad
0Draws
0Lyon
28/8/13 · Real Sociedad 2–0 Lyon
20/8/13 · Lyon 0–2 Real Sociedad

Returns calculator

Potential return0 £
Net profit0 £
Implied probability0%
Market margin5.0%

Questions and answers

Which tip do we give for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Real Sociedad to win (1.85); Over 2.5 goals (1.52).

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Our estimate gives Real Sociedad a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lyon 19%.

What is the date, time and venue of the game?

Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 17:45, venue Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián. Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou.

Who will be missing?

Real Sociedad: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan. Lyon: S. Kango, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, T. Morton. Team news can still change before kick-off.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?

We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.80).

Will both teams score?

We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.57).

What correct score do we see as likeliest?

Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 1–1 (9.1%) and 2–0 (8.5%).

How do you put your predictions together?

Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.

18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.