Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Aalesund on 25 October 2026 · 16:00 at Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsberg), and the referee is Mischa Kellerhals. Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Sarpsborg 08 FF win. Loses: a draw, Sarpsborg 08 FF lose.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Sarpsborg 08 FF lie 9th, having collected 31 points after 25 matches (8W 7D 10L); Aalesund lie 14th, having collected 24 points (5W 9D 11L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sarpsborg 08 FF average 1.2 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 1.7 for and 2.2 against for Aalesund.
- Form in the competition. Sarpsborg 08 FF: 7W 7D 9L, goals 28–34; Aalesund: 5W 9D 9L, goals 39–51.
- Head to head. In 12 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 9 wins to Aalesund's 2 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 27–13.
What to expect
In our view Sarpsborg 08 FF hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), which we give a 51% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 68%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 68%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 12; Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 wins, 1 draw, Aalesund 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28–34, Aalesund 39–51.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
- Unavailable: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, top price 2.04). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Aalesund will be without: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.86 |
| Market average | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.93 | 48.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 67.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.89 | 32.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 12:04. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Aalesund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9th (31 points), Aalesund 14th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7W 7D 9L (28:34), Aalesund 5W 9D 9L (39:51).
- H2H: 12 matches: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9W 1D 2L, goals 27–13.
- Absences: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: injuries and missing players
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- F. Carstenseninjury · will miss the match
- M. Opokuankle injury · will miss the match
Aalesund
- H. Hammerinjury · will miss the match
- S. Haramabsence · will miss the match
- M. Reedinjury · will miss the match
- P. Auklandinjury · doubtful
- A. Kjelseninjury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Home and away
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: last matches of both teams
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Sarpsborg 08 FFLWLWLAalesundLLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.90); Under 3.5 goals (1.87).
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our estimate gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aalesund 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 16:00, venue Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg. Referee: Mischa Kellerhals.
Who will be missing?
Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Aalesund: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.42) and under 2.5 goals at 32% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.2%), then 1–1 (9.0%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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