Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund, 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at An der Alten Försterei (Berlin), with D. Schlager officiating. The odds point to Borussia Dortmund (61%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Borussia Dortmund win by 2 or more. Stake back: Borussia Dortmund win by 1. Loses: a draw, Borussia Dortmund lose.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Union Berlin lie 16th, having collected 7 points after 8 matches (1W 4D 3L); Borussia Dortmund lie 2nd, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
What to expect
In our view Borussia Dortmund hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 63%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
- Unavailable: Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 60%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Union Berlin: no absences. Borussia Dortmund will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.79 | 4.72 | 1.60 |
| Market average | 5.51 | 4.47 | 1.56 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 83.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 1.47 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.55 | 36.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.23 | 42.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.31 | 40.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Union Berlin 1–2 Borussia Dortmund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Union Berlin 16th (7 points), Borussia Dortmund 2nd (18 points).
- Absences: Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 0.
Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: injuries and missing players
Union Berlin
- No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
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Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: last matches of both teams
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund -1 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Over 2.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our estimate gives Union Berlin a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Borussia Dortmund 61%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 14:30, venue An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Referee: D. Schlager.
Who will be missing?
Union Berlin: no absences. Borussia Dortmund: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.51) and under 2.5 goals at 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 0–2 (9.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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