Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund, 31 October 2026 · 17:30 at Allianz Arena (Munich), with T. Stieler officiating. The odds point to Bayern München (72%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bayern München lie 1st, having collected 18 points after 8 matches (5W 3D 0L); Borussia Dortmund lie 2nd, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bayern München average 3.6 goals for and 0.9 against, compared with 1.7 for and 0.6 against for Borussia Dortmund.
- Form in the competition. Bayern München: 5W 2D 0L, goals 25–6; Borussia Dortmund: 5W 2D 0L, goals 12–4.
- Head to head. In 50 previous meetings, Bayern München have taken 27 wins to Borussia Dortmund's 13 wins, plus 10 draws; the goal tally stands at 101–68.
What to expect
In our view Bayern München hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (8.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.53), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 74%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 50; Bayern München 27 wins, 10 draws, Borussia Dortmund 13 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.4 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bayern München 25–6, Borussia Dortmund 12–4.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
- Unavailable: Bayern München 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 55%, top price 1.79). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala, M. Neuer. Borussia Dortmund will be without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, K. Karetsas. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.35 | 6.40 | 8.96 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 6.02 | 8.16 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.32 | 6.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 1.07 | 88.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.90 | 3.63 | 26.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.49 | 62.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 31/10/26, 14:09. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayern München 1st (18 points), Borussia Dortmund 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Bayern München 5W 2D 0L (25:6), Borussia Dortmund 5W 2D 0L (12:4).
- H2H: 50 matches: Bayern München 27W 10D 13L, goals 101–68.
- Absences: Bayern München 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: injuries and missing players
Bayern München
- T. Buchmannknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · will miss the match
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Canknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Konstanteliasknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Lermamuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Karetsasankle injury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
Bayern München
Home and away
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: last matches of both teams
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Bayern MünchenDWWDWBorussia DortmundDWDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.95); Both teams to score (1.53).
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our estimate gives Bayern München a 72% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Borussia Dortmund 12%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 31 October 2026 at 17:30, venue Allianz Arena, Munich. Referee: T. Stieler.
Who will be missing?
Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala, M. Neuer. Borussia Dortmund: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, K. Karetsas. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 74% (odds 1.30) and under 2.5 goals at 26% (odds 3.90).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.53).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (8.9%), then 3–1 (8.1%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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