Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München (Bundesliga, 7 November 2026, 14:30): FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 2.11. Second tip: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.74. The bookmakers' odds give FSV Mainz 05 13%, the draw 16% and Bayern München 72%. The most likely score is 1–2.
Wins: FSV Mainz 05 win, a draw, FSV Mainz 05 lose by 1. Loses: FSV Mainz 05 lose by 2 or more.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München preview and prediction
Will Mainz keep the gap to a single goal, or will Bayern's attack pull away? Everything in this Bundesliga Matchweek 9 clash comes down to that. We favour FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.95, with a chance of 52%. Over 3.5 goals at odds 1.62 is our other selection, with a chance of 59%. Kick-off is 14:30 on 7 November 2026 at the Mewa Arena in Mainz.
The key facts
- Likely result: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern München, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FSV Mainz 05 10th (10 points), Bayern München 1st (18 points).
- Form in the competition: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 4L (17:17), Bayern München 5W 3D 0L (27:8).
- H2H: 34 matches: FSV Mainz 05 7W 3D 24L, goals 39–99.
- Absences: FSV Mainz 05 0, Bayern München 0.
Where Mainz stand at home
Across eight games in this competition, Mainz have collected 10 points from 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with goals finishing 17:17. They average 2.1 scored and 2.1 conceded per game. The trouble lies at home. They have failed to win any of their four home games, taking one draw and suffering three losses, with goals 6:10. These home numbers come solely from the Bundesliga and tell us nothing about cup or European fixtures, yet on their own turf this competition has not treated them kindly.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
FSV Mainz 05
Home and away
Bayern's record and their recent scoring
Bayern lead the table with 18 points from 8 matches, collecting 5 wins and 3 draws without a single defeat, and they have scored 27 while conceding 8. Their average is 3.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, making them the strongest attack and the tightest defence on this page. On the road the numbers remain strong but are less overwhelming: 2 wins, 2 draws and no losses, with 7 scored against 4 conceded. The away sample is small, so we would not put too much weight on it, yet it serves as a reminder that Bayern are not always in ruthless form.
In every competition, their most recent five games produced 2 victories and 3 draws, without a single loss, and the scoring read 16 for and 9 against. The standout result is the 6-1 thrashing of RB Leipzig, whereas the 2-2 stalemate with Borussia Dortmund came last.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 8.40 | 6.69 | 1.36 |
| Market average | 7.51 | 6.10 | 1.32 |
| Lowest odds | 6.18 | 5.32 | 1.29 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 1.06 | 89.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.10 | 3.89 | 24.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.66 | 57.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.46 | 63.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.56 | 36.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 00:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.5%.
Mainz's last five, and what they tell us
Mainz's form across all competitions is less convincing than their league table. Their last five matches gave them 2 wins and 3 defeats, with no draws, and goals 11:14. Both teams scored in 4 of those five, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of them. We take from that a side that keeps finding the net and letting the other side find it too. The defeat by Elversberg on 30 October 2026, 4-1 away, is the one that stands out from the recent run.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: last matches of both teams
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
A rivalry that has belonged to Bayern
Bayern dominate this rivalry. Across 34 meetings they have 24 wins, Mainz have 7, and 3 games ended level, with goals standing at 39 for and 99 against. Their latest clash, played on 25 April 2026, ended Mainz 3-4 Bayern München, a result that suggests Mainz can push Bayern hard when they hit their stride. Mainz's standout moment is a 2-1 victory on 14 December 2024. Of the six results listed, Bayern's 8-1 win in March 2024 is the biggest margin.
With no injuries or suspensions reported for either team, we anticipate both sides fielding their strongest lineups.
Head to head
All matchesFSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: injuries and missing players
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
Bayern München
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
The case for the handicap at 1.95
To be honest, the case for FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 is slim and comes down to value. The market prices it at 52%, and the top available odds on that line are 1.95. That is the entire reasoning, and we feel it is sufficient to back a stake. The selection lands as long as Mainz do not lose by a margin of two goals or more, so it cashes on 1-2, 1-1 and 2-2 and fails on 1-3, 0-2 and 0-3.
The exact score the odds make most probable is 1-2, with an 8.5% chance, and that outcome would win this bet. Next in line is 1-3 at 7.8%, which would lose it. Because this is a value pick rather than a confident one, a smaller stake makes more sense.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FSV Mainz 05LLWLWBayern MünchenDWWDWOur second tip: Over 3.5 goals
Our most confident selection here is based on the scoring form of both clubs. Mainz have topped 2.5 goals in four of their last five games in all competitions, while Bayern have done so in every one of their last five. Our model projects roughly 4 goals in total, with Bayern around 3 and Mainz around 1. The market puts Over 3.5 at a 59% probability with a best available price of 1.62, and with both teams producing this kind of scoring, we are comfortable backing that price.
The bet wins on 1-3 and 2-2 but loses on 1-2, 1-1, 0-2 and 0-3. Watch out: 1-2 is the single likeliest exact score, and it misses this bet by just one goal, so nothing here is guaranteed.
Three further picks for the card
- Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.24, with a 78% probability. It mirrors the goals reasoning behind our second pick, just set on a lower line, which makes it a compact price better suited to a careful stake.
- Both teams to score is priced at 1.37, which implies a 69% likelihood. Bayern have found the net in each of their last five outings, while Mainz have done so in all five of theirs.
- FSV Mainz 05 +2 at odds 1.56, a 63% chance. Mainz only lose the bet if they are beaten by three or more goals, while a two-goal defeat gives the stake back, which makes it a comfortable fit next to the main tip.
Our verdict on the Mewa Arena clash
Odds compilers have Bayern as the clear favourites, with a 67% chance on the result, while Mainz sit at 17% for a win and 17% for a draw. We don't anticipate a shock from Mainz and aren't backing one. Instead, our selections centre on the margin and the total goals. Mainz +1.5 at 1.95 is our value selection, and Over 3.5 goals at 1.62 is the pick we favour more. Size your stakes modestly, since Bayern's attack poses the biggest danger to every pick on this page.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 (Asian handicap) (2.11); Over 3.5 goals (1.74).
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Our estimate gives FSV Mainz 05 a 13% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Bayern München 72%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 7 November 2026 at 14:30, venue MEWA Arena, Mainz. Referee: Robert Schröder.
Who will be missing?
FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Bayern München: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 76% (odds 1.27) and under 2.5 goals at 24% (odds 4.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 64% (odds 1.53).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (8.7%), then 1–3 (8.1%) and 0–2 (7.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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