Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at MHP Arena (Stuttgart), VfB Stuttgart take on Atlético Madrid, with Serdar Gözübüyük, Netherlands in charge. We make Atlético Madrid (46%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Atlético Madrid win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Atlético Madrid lose.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. VfB Stuttgart lie 14th, having collected 7 points after 4 matches (2W 1D 1L); Atlético Madrid lie 23rd, having collected 4 points (1W 1D 2L).
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0 wins to Atlético Madrid's 0 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 1–1.
What to expect
In our view Atlético Madrid hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 67%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 65%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; VfB Stuttgart 0 wins, 1 draw, Atlético Madrid 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
- Unavailable: VfB Stuttgart 0, Atlético Madrid 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, top price 1.81). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Atlético Madrid will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.55 | 4.00 | 2.13 |
| Market average | 3.32 | 3.87 | 2.06 |
| Lowest odds | 3.08 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.44 | 65.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.78 | 2.69 | 34.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.13 | 45.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.78 | 33.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 20/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético Madrid, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: VfB Stuttgart 14th (7 points), Atlético Madrid 23rd (4 points).
- H2H: 1 match: VfB Stuttgart 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: VfB Stuttgart 0, Atlético Madrid 0.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: injuries and missing players
VfB Stuttgart
- No reported absences
Atlético Madrid
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 | Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
Recent matches
VfB Stuttgart
Home and away
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: last matches of both teams
VfB Stuttgart
Atlético Madrid
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.50); Over 2.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our estimate gives VfB Stuttgart a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atlético Madrid 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 20 October 2026 at 20:00, venue MHP Arena, Stuttgart. Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük, Netherlands.
Who will be missing?
VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Atlético Madrid: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.47) and under 2.5 goals at 35% (odds 2.78).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 67% (odds 1.44).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (9.9%), then 1–2 (9.2%) and 2–1 (7.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.