Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Hamburger SV welcome VfB Stuttgart on 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at Volksparkstadion (Hamburg), and the referee is R. Hartmann. VfB Stuttgart (53%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Hamburger SV win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): Hamburger SV lose by 1. Loses: Hamburger SV lose by 2 or more.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Hamburger SV lie 8th, having collected 12 points after 9 matches (4W 0D 5L); VfB Stuttgart lie 12th, having collected 9 points (3W 0D 5L).
What to expect
In our view VfB Stuttgart hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), which we give a 52% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 67%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 67%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
- Unavailable: Hamburger SV 0, VfB Stuttgart 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Another angle: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, top price 2.06). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Hamburger SV: no absences. VfB Stuttgart will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.21 | 4.21 | 1.86 |
| Market average | 3.93 | 4.15 | 1.80 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 85.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.06 | 2.01 | 47.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.39 | 67.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.90 | 2.82 | 33.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Hamburger SV 8th (12 points), VfB Stuttgart 12th (9 points).
- Absences: Hamburger SV 0, VfB Stuttgart 0.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: injuries and missing players
Hamburger SV
- No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
Hamburger SV
Home and away
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: last matches of both teams
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.56); Under 3.5 goals (1.89).
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our estimate gives Hamburger SV a 24% chance of winning, the draw 23% and VfB Stuttgart 53%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 14:30, venue Volksparkstadion, Hamburg. Referee: R. Hartmann.
Who will be missing?
Hamburger SV: no absences. VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.42) and under 2.5 goals at 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 67% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.3%), then 1–1 (8.9%) and 0–2 (6.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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