Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Wrexham welcome Middlesbrough on 4 November 2026 · 19:45 at Racecourse Ground (Wrexham), and the referee is Oliver Langford. Middlesbrough (56%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Wrexham win, a draw. Stake back: Wrexham lose by 1. Loses: Wrexham lose by 2 or more.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Wrexham lie 16th, having collected 17 points after 14 matches (4W 5D 5L); Middlesbrough lie 1st, having collected 28 points (8W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Wrexham average 1.2 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 2.3 for and 1.3 against for Middlesbrough.
- Form in the competition. Wrexham: 3W 5D 5L, goals 15–19; Middlesbrough: 8W 4D 1L, goals 30–17.
- Head to head. In 4 previous meetings, Wrexham have taken 1 win to Middlesbrough's 1 win, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 5–4.
What to expect
In our view Middlesbrough hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 59%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 4; Wrexham 1 win, 2 draws, Middlesbrough 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Wrexham 15–19, Middlesbrough 30–17.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
- Unavailable: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 59%, top price 1.65). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Wrexham: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, J. Windass, S. Revan. Middlesbrough will be without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.00 | 4.27 | 1.71 |
| Market average | 4.59 | 4.05 | 1.68 |
| Lowest odds | 4.22 | 3.76 | 1.65 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.17 | 79.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 1.60 | 59.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.31 | 40.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.45 | 38.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 4/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Wrexham 1–1 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wrexham 16th (17 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Wrexham 3W 5D 5L (15:19), Middlesbrough 8W 4D 1L (30:17).
- H2H: 4 matches: Wrexham 1W 2D 1L, goals 5–4.
- Absences: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2.
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: injuries and missing players
Wrexham
- N. Broadheadthigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Cacacecalf injury · will miss the match
- J. Windassankle injury · will miss the match
- S. Revanhamstring injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 15 | 5-2-8 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2-4-9 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Wrexham
Home and away
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: last matches of both teams
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
WrexhamWLLWLMiddlesbroughLWWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Wrexham +1 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Our estimate gives Wrexham a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 56%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 4 November 2026 at 19:45, venue Racecourse Ground, Wrexham. Referee: Oliver Langford.
Who will be missing?
Wrexham: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, J. Windass, S. Revan. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.65) and under 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.35).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.2%), then 1–2 (9.9%) and 0–1 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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