Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Atalanta welcome Kairat Almaty on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at New Balance Arena (Bergamo), and the referee is Julian Weinberger, Austria. Atalanta (86%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Atalanta lie 16th, having collected 4 points after 3 matches (1W 1D 1L); Kairat Almaty lie 27th, having collected 2 points (0W 2D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Atalanta average 1.0 goals for and 0.8 against, compared with 1.0 for and 3.0 against for Kairat Almaty.
- Form in the competition. Atalanta: 2W 1D 1L, goals 4–3; Kairat Almaty: 0W 1D 1L, goals 2–6.
What to expect
In our view Atalanta hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 3–0 (11.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.12), the goals markets are also worth considering: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.80), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 46%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 74%.
The prediction at a glance
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Atalanta 4–3, Kairat Almaty 2–6.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
- Unavailable: Atalanta 0, Kairat Almaty 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 54%, top price 1.85). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Atalanta: no absences. Kairat Almaty will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.12 | 12.00 | 28.00 |
| Market average | 1.09 | 10.14 | 21.72 |
| Lowest odds | 1.08 | 8.49 | 14.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.06 | 88.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.26 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.66 | 25.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.80 | 1.70 | 55.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.10 | 2.01 | 46.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.85 | 1.73 | 53.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 16:16. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Atalanta 3–0 Kairat Almaty, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Atalanta 16th (4 points), Kairat Almaty 27th (2 points).
- Form in the competition: Atalanta 2W 1D 1L (4:3), Kairat Almaty 0W 1D 1L (2:6).
- Absences: Atalanta 0, Kairat Almaty 0.
Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: injuries and missing players
Atalanta
- No reported absences
Kairat Almaty
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | 3-0-0 | 11:4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjällby AIF | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2-0-1 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 2-0-1 | 4:5 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1-1-1 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | 0-2-1 | 1:2 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjælland | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Atalanta
Home and away
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: last matches of both teams
Atalanta
Kairat Almaty
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AtalantaDLWKairat AlmatyDLDReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
Atalanta -2 (Asian handicap) (1.73); Over 3.5 goals (1.80).
Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
Our estimate gives Atalanta a 86% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Kairat Almaty 4%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 17:45, venue New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Referee: Julian Weinberger, Austria.
Who will be missing?
Atalanta: no absences. Kairat Almaty: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 74% (odds 1.30) and under 2.5 goals at 26% (odds 4.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 46% (odds 2.10).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 3–0 (11.6%), then 2–0 (10.9%) and 4–0 (9.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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