Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence), Fiorentina take on Atalanta, with Federico La Penna in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Fiorentina lie 16th, having collected 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L); Atalanta lie 13th, having collected 11 points (3W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Fiorentina average 1.1 goals for and 2.4 against, compared with 1.8 for and 1.9 against for Atalanta.
- Form in the competition. Fiorentina: 1W 1D 6L, goals 9–19; Atalanta: 3W 1D 4L, goals 14–15.
- Head to head. In 37 previous meetings, Fiorentina have taken 17 wins to Atalanta's 10 wins, plus 10 draws; the goal tally stands at 59–51.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 68%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 65%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 37; Fiorentina 17 wins, 10 draws, Atalanta 10 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Fiorentina 9–19, Atalanta 14–15.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
- Unavailable: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, top price 1.84). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Atalanta will be without: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.47 | 3.86 | 3.10 |
| Market average | 2.35 | 3.68 | 2.84 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.46 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.68 | 35.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 68.0% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.91 | 32.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 29/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Fiorentina 16th (8 points), Atalanta 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fiorentina 1W 1D 6L (9:19), Atalanta 3W 1D 4L (14:15).
- H2H: 37 matches: Fiorentina 17W 10D 10L, goals 59–51.
- Absences: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: injuries and missing players
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · doubtful
Atalanta
- R. Bellanovathigh injury · will miss the match
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scamaccathigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Fiorentina
Home and away
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: last matches of both teams
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FiorentinaWDLLLAtalantaLDDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Over 2.5 goals (1.57); Fiorentina or draw (1X) (1.48).
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our estimate gives Fiorentina a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atalanta 34%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 29 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Referee: Federico La Penna.
Who will be missing?
Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Atalanta: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.57) and under 2.5 goals at 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.2%), then 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–2 (7.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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