Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Atalanta vs Parma, 2 November 2026 · 19:45 at New Balance Arena (Bergamo), with Valerio Crezzini officiating. The odds point to Atalanta (65%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Parma win, a draw, Parma lose by 1. Loses: Parma lose by 2 or more.
Atalanta vs Parma: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Atalanta lie 13th, having collected 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L); Parma lie 15th, having collected 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Atalanta average 1.8 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 0.6 for and 1.7 against for Parma.
- Form in the competition. Atalanta: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–17; Parma: 1W 2D 6L, goals 5–15.
- Head to head. In 20 previous meetings, Atalanta have taken 11 wins to Parma's 6 wins, plus 3 draws; the goal tally stands at 41–29.
What to expect
In our view Atalanta hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.53), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 20; Atalanta 11 wins, 3 draws, Parma 6 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Atalanta 16–17, Parma 5–15.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Atalanta 9, Parma 2.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 58%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Atalanta: R. Bellanova, G. Gaetano, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, T. Kristensen, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca. Parma will be without: A. Bernabe, L. Valenti. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Atalanta vs Parma: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.52 | 5.08 | 6.70 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.88 | 6.27 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 1.47 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.18 | 43.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 2/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Atalanta 2–1 Parma, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Atalanta 13th (11 points), Parma 15th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Atalanta 3W 2D 4L (16:17), Parma 1W 2D 6L (5:15).
- H2H: 20 matches: Atalanta 11W 3D 6L, goals 41–29.
- Absences: Atalanta 9, Parma 2.
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Atalanta vs Parma: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Atalanta vs Parma: injuries and missing players
Atalanta
- R. Bellanovathigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Gaetanomuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Kristensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scamaccathigh injury · will miss the match
Parma
- A. Bernabenot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Valentiabsence · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Atalanta
Home and away
Atalanta vs Parma: last matches of both teams
Atalanta
Parma
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AtalantaLDDLWParmaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Atalanta vs Parma?
Parma +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.77); Over 2.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
Our estimate gives Atalanta a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Parma 15%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 2 November 2026 at 19:45, venue New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Referee: Valerio Crezzini.
Who will be missing?
Atalanta: R. Bellanova, G. Gaetano, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, T. Kristensen, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca. Parma: A. Bernabe, L. Valenti. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.53) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 2–0 (9.8%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.