AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: prediction, odds and betting tip – 8 November 2026, Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen preview and prediction

On 8 November 2026, the AFAS Stadion stages AZ Alkmaar against Groningen, with kick-off at 15:45 in matchweek 12 of the Eredivisie. AZ are fifth on 20 points, while Groningen sit eighth with 15, and the bookmakers price the home side as a clear favourite at best odds of 1.55. We back the hosts, yet we are less convinced that the goals market is the straightforward ride the headline figures suggest.

Two sides with mixed recent results

Within this tournament, AZ have collected 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 20 goals scored and 13 conceded. Groningen sit with 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, having scored 26 and let in 24. Those numbers cover this competition alone. Taking every tournament into account, AZ look less impressive: their five most recent outings produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with goals reading 8:6. Their latest pair were a 0-2 home reverse against Twente, followed by a 1-0 setback away at Ajax. Groningen's recent five matches also yielded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with goals at 14:11, and their most recent result was a 2-3 home defeat to Sparta Rotterdam. Because neither team has found a clear run of form, we would be cautious about leaning on recent results alone.

Goals at both ends

Groningen find the net more often in this competition, averaging 2.4 goals a match to AZ's 1.8, yet they let in more too, 2.2 to 1.2. AZ have the stronger defence, which is the chief reason the home side is our pick to get the upper hand. In all competitions, over their last five games AZ have finished above 2.5 goals in 3 of them, whereas Groningen have done so in 5. Market pricing has AZ scoring roughly 2 and Groningen roughly 1, so around 3 goals overall. The most probable exact results are 2-1 at 9.6%, 1-1 at 8.3% and 2-0 at 8.0%. These figures reflect what the market anticipates for this fixture, not how the two sides have actually fared against each other.

What the meetings tell us

AZ hold the upper hand over 34 meetings with Groningen: 16 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats, and they have scored 52 goals to the visitors' 35. For the home side that is a sustained advantage across the head-to-head record. Still, the latest clash swung the other way, as Groningen romped to a 3-0 home win on 22/3/26. AZ's earlier results were a 4-1 victory on 10/8/25, a 3-0 success on 11/5/25, a 3-1 triumph on 18/12/24 and a 1-0 win on 11/3/23, bracketed by a 0-0 stalemate on 25/8/24. We see this as a consistent AZ pattern, not a certainty, yet it still gives good grounds to back the hosts seriously.

No absences on either side

No absences are reported for either AZ Alkmaar or Groningen. With that worry gone, there is little reason to be cautious, and the result will likely come down to recent form and the figures already discussed.

Our top pick and the selection we trust most

We lean toward Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.85 (chance 53%). The case rests on the market alone: the bookmakers give it a 53% chance at odds 1.85. Winning scorelines are 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, while a 3-1 result is the only loss, so a single extra goal decides it. Keep the stake small.

Our pick for the day, the selection we'd really put money on, is AZ Alkmaar to win at odds 1.55 (chance 61%). AZ sit fifth on 20 points while Groningen are eighth with 15, and in home fixtures this competition AZ have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Across 34 head-to-head meetings AZ have won 16 to Groningen's 9, and bookmakers price them at 61% with the best available odds of 1.55. This bet wins on 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 and 3-0, and loses only on 1-1. Backing the home form makes more sense to us than chasing a goal line near three.

Additional markets to consider

• AZ Alkmaar +0 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 78%): the stake comes back on a draw, pays out on an AZ Alkmaar victory, and is lost only if they lose.
• AZ Alkmaar -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.38 (chance 69%): split the stake, with one half on AZ Alkmaar -0.5 and the other on AZ Alkmaar +0. It offers better protection in a draw than the plain win bet at 1.55.
• Both teams to score, odds 1.50 (64% chance): both teams have scored in 4 of Groningen's last five matches and in 2 of AZ's, so we would treat this as a modest add-on rather than a core selection.

Final thoughts ahead of the whistle

We're backing AZ to win, with the under 3.5 taking a smaller share of the stake. Their home form and the edge they hold in head-to-head meetings carry most of the weight, while the goals market softens the cost of the price. Prefer a safer approach? The Asian handicap at +0 is the tidier option. Have a great time at AFAS.