Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 6–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayern München welcome RB Leipzig on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at Allianz Arena (Munich), and the referee is T. Stieler. Bayern München (79%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Bayern München lie 1st, having collected 18 points after 8 matches (5W 3D 0L); RB Leipzig lie 4th, having collected 15 points (5W 0D 3L).
What to expect
In our view Bayern München hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 3–1 (7.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.24), the goals markets are also worth considering: Both teams to score: no (odds 3.00), which we give a 31% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 69%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 85%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 85%.
- Unavailable: Bayern München 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 28%, top price 3.50). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bayern München: no absences. RB Leipzig will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.24 | 8.50 | 12.40 |
| Market average | 1.21 | 7.84 | 11.26 |
| Lowest odds | 1.17 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.03 | 1.03 | 94.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 7.00 | 6.31 | 14.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.98 | 31.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 14:38. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayern München 1st (18 points), RB Leipzig 4th (15 points).
- Absences: Bayern München 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: injuries and missing players
Bayern München
- No reported absences
RB Leipzig
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
Bayern München
Home and away
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: last matches of both teams
Bayern München
RB Leipzig
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern München -2 (Asian handicap) (1.70); Both teams to score: no (3.00).
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Our estimate gives Bayern München a 79% chance of winning, the draw 12% and RB Leipzig 9%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 17:30, venue Allianz Arena, Munich. Referee: T. Stieler.
Who will be missing?
Bayern München: no absences. RB Leipzig: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 85% (odds 1.12) and under 2.5 goals at 15% (odds 7.00).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 69% (odds 1.36).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 3–1 (7.7%), then 4–1 (6.8%) and 2–1 (6.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.