Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg), SC Freiburg take on Bayern München, with F. Zwayer in charge. We make Bayern München (64%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. SC Freiburg lie 3rd, having collected 16 points after 8 matches (5W 1D 2L); Bayern München lie 1st, having collected 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, SC Freiburg average 2.5 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 3.7 for and 0.8 against for Bayern München.
- Form in the competition. SC Freiburg: 4W 1D 1L, goals 15–6; Bayern München: 4W 2D 0L, goals 22–5.
- Head to head. In 32 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have taken 2 wins to Bayern München's 24 wins, plus 6 draws; the goal tally stands at 27–85.
What to expect
In our view Bayern München hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.86), which we give a 53% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 66%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 73%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 32; SC Freiburg 2 wins, 6 draws, Bayern München 24 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: SC Freiburg 15–6, Bayern München 22–5.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
- Unavailable: SC Freiburg 2, Bayern München 7.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 47%, top price 2.10). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for SC Freiburg: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz. Bayern München will be without: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, Kim Min-Jae, J. Kimmich, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, A. Pavlovic. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 5.75 | 5.28 | 1.53 |
| Market average | 5.49 | 5.05 | 1.49 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.07 | 87.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.47 | 27.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.79 | 53.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.81 | 2.72 | 34.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:38. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern München, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SC Freiburg 3rd (16 points), Bayern München 1st (18 points).
- Form in the competition: SC Freiburg 4W 1D 1L (15:6), Bayern München 4W 2D 0L (22:5).
- H2H: 32 matches: SC Freiburg 2W 6D 24L, goals 27–85.
- Absences: SC Freiburg 2, Bayern München 7.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: injuries and missing players
SC Freiburg
- Y. Engelhardtinjury · doubtful
- B. Yilmazabsence · doubtful
Bayern München
- T. Buchmannknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- Kim Min-Jaeknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Kimmichabsence · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · will miss the match
- A. Pavloviccalf injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
SC Freiburg
Home and away
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: last matches of both teams
SC Freiburg
Bayern München
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SC FreiburgWLLWDBayern MünchenDWWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Over 3.5 goals (1.86); Bayern München to win (1.53).
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our estimate gives SC Freiburg a 17% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bayern München 64%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 16:30, venue Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg. Referee: F. Zwayer.
Who will be missing?
SC Freiburg: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz. Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, Kim Min-Jae, J. Kimmich, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, A. Pavlovic. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 73% (odds 1.33) and under 2.5 goals at 27% (odds 3.60).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 66% (odds 1.44).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.2%), then 1–3 (7.7%) and 1–1 (7.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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