Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Casa Pia welcome Sporting CP on 30 October 2026 · 20:15 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Mayor), and the referee is Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca. Sporting CP (74%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Casa Pia lie 17th, having collected 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L); Sporting CP lie 3rd, having collected 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Casa Pia average 0.6 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 2.3 for and 1.2 against for Sporting CP.
- Form in the competition. Casa Pia: 2W 1D 6L, goals 5–17; Sporting CP: 5W 3D 1L, goals 21–11.
- Head to head. In 10 previous meetings, Casa Pia have taken 0 wins to Sporting CP's 10 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 7–31.
What to expect
In our view Sporting CP hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 0–2 (12.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.55), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 49%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 62%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 10; Casa Pia 0 wins, 0 draws, Sporting CP 10 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.8 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Casa Pia 5–17, Sporting CP 21–11.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
- Unavailable: Casa Pia 0, Sporting CP 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 59%, top price 1.65). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Casa Pia: no absences. Sporting CP will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 11.10 | 6.36 | 1.32 |
| Market average | 9.92 | 5.79 | 1.27 |
| Lowest odds | 7.24 | 4.84 | 1.22 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.50 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.29 | 41.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.83 | 51.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 30/10/26, 18:09. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Casa Pia 17th (7 points), Sporting CP 3rd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Casa Pia 2W 1D 6L (5:17), Sporting CP 5W 3D 1L (21:11).
- H2H: 10 matches: Casa Pia 0W 0D 10L, goals 7–31.
- Absences: Casa Pia 0, Sporting CP 0.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: injuries and missing players
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
Sporting CP
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Casa Pia
Home and away
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: last matches of both teams
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Casa PiaLWLWLSporting CPWLWDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Casa Pia +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Over 2.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our estimate gives Casa Pia a 10% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Sporting CP 74%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 30 October 2026 at 20:15, venue Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Mayor. Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca.
Who will be missing?
Casa Pia: no absences. Sporting CP: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.55) and under 2.5 goals at 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–2 (12.2%), then 0–3 (10.0%) and 0–1 (10.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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