Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Exeter City vs Cheltenham (League Two, 14 November 2026, 12:30): Draw or Cheltenham (X2) at odds of 1.85. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.75. The bookmakers' odds give Exeter City 46%, the draw 27% and Cheltenham 27%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham preview and prediction
Exeter City host Cheltenham at St James Park on 14 November 2026, kick-off 12:30, in League Two Matchweek 15. The numbers that stand out are the expected goals: Exeter 2, Cheltenham 1, about 3 in total. The most likely exact scores are 1-1 at 12.3%, 1-0 at 11.1% and 2-1 at 9.2%. Those are not the figures of a match anybody expects to run away from its script. The table adds a twist, with Cheltenham fifth on 21 points and Exeter 12th on 19, though those positions reflect this competition only.
The key facts
- Likely result: Exeter City 1–1 Cheltenham, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Exeter City 12th (19 points), Cheltenham 5th (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Exeter City 5W 4D 5L (11:9), Cheltenham 6W 3D 5L (23:25).
- H2H: 24 matches: Exeter City 11W 5D 8L, goals 39–31.
- Absences: Exeter City 0, Cheltenham 0.
Exeter's home comfort against Cheltenham's away struggles
Exeter have been a different side at St James Park. In this competition they have won four and drawn three at home without a defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Their overall return across 14 matches is 11 scored and 9 conceded, so the home record is doing most of the work.
Cheltenham are the mirror image. They have scored 23 and conceded 25 in this competition, and away from home they have won one, drawn two and lost four, with 9 scored and 15 conceded. We have no time for a side with that travelling record when the price is asked to carry a whole away win on trust.
Who will win Exeter City vs Cheltenham?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Attack against defence: where the goals come from
Per match, Exeter score 0.8 and concede 0.6 in this competition. Cheltenham score 1.6 and concede 1.8. That is the core of the match. Cheltenham create more, but they also leave more gaps, and Exeter's defensive numbers are the best on show here. Our read is that Exeter will be hard to break down at home, while Cheltenham will find the net more often than they are kept out.
Form guide: last five matches in all competitions
Exeter's last five matches in all competitions bring three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. The run includes a 1-0 win at Shrewsbury, a goalless draw at Colchester, home wins over Crewe (2-0) and Fleetwood Town (2-1), and a 2-1 defeat at Salford City.
Cheltenham's five have brought two wins, no draws and three defeats, with 7 scored and 11 conceded. The sequence is 2-0 down at home to Salford City, 4-1 down at Oldham, wins over Fleetwood Town (4-2) and Newport County (1-0) at home, and a 3-1 defeat at Tranmere. Their form is uneven, and the 4-2 and 1-0 home wins show a side capable of scoring, but the away defeats are the part we keep returning to.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | 4-3-7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Exeter City
Home and away
Exeter City vs Cheltenham: last matches of both teams
Exeter City
Cheltenham
No meetings on record and no team news
We have no earlier meeting between these clubs on record, so there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on. Neither side has any absentees reported, which means the selection question does not change the reading of this match.
Head to head
All matchesTeam comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Exeter CityLWWDWCheltenhamLWWLLWhat the bookmakers expect from this match
The market makes Exeter the most likely winners at 46% (best odds 2.05), with the draw at 27% (best odds 3.45) and Cheltenham also at 27% (best odds 3.60). These are the chances the bookmakers expect, carrying a margin of 8.4% on the match result. On goals, over 1.5 is priced at 72% (best odds 1.31) and over 3.5 at only 29% (best odds 3.25). Over 2.5 sits at 49% (best odds 1.95) and under 2.5 at 51% (best odds 1.85), so the total is close to a coin toss.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.05 | 3.45 | 3.60 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.37 | 3.45 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.36 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 71.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.93 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.83 | 51.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.25 | 3.18 | 29.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.75 | 52.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.96 | 47.1% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 16:27. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.4%.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Our Exeter City vs Cheltenham betting tip: Draw or Cheltenham
Our main tip is Draw or Cheltenham (X2) at odds 1.85, chance 54%. Cheltenham are 5 in the table with 21 points, Exeter City 12 with 19, and the market gives this outcome 54% at best odds 1.85. We accept Exeter are the favourites on the match result, and their home form is a fair reason for that. But a side that sits higher in the table and has scored more deserves to be backed not to lose. The price is fair rather than generous, so we would keep the stake sensible.
This tip wins on 1-1, 0-1 and 0-0, and loses on 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham: injuries and missing players
Exeter City
- No reported absences
Cheltenham
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Our second tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.75, chance 53%. Exeter City failed to score in only 1 of their last 5, and Cheltenham failed to score in only 1 of theirs. Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 matches of Cheltenham. The expected total is about 3 goals, and the market gives the outcome 53% at best odds 1.75. We think the attacking tendencies on both sides make this the more natural read of the match, even if it is a narrower call than the main tip.
This tip wins on 1-1 and 2-1, and loses on 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-0.
Alternatives worth a look beside the tips
- Cheltenham +1.5 at odds 1.27 (chance 75%). It wins unless Cheltenham lose by 2 or more, so it fits well with the main tip.
- Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33 (chance 71%). The expected total of about 3 supports it, and the market has over 3.5 at only 29%.
- Cheltenham +0.5 at odds 1.83 (chance 52%). It wins unless Cheltenham lose by 1 or more, a harder target but a fair price if you want more upside.
We would not bother with under 2.5 at 1.85, because the market has that line almost level at 51%.
Most likely score: 1-1
On the numbers, Exeter are the stronger home side, and the bookmakers price them that way. We still lean toward Cheltenham avoiding defeat, given their higher league position and more productive attack. If you want one bet, take Draw or Cheltenham (X2) at 1.85. For a second, add both teams to score at 1.75 and keep both stakes modest. Our most likely score is 1-1, at 12.3%.
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Exeter City vs Cheltenham?
Draw or Cheltenham (X2) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Exeter City vs Cheltenham?
Our estimate gives Exeter City a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cheltenham 27%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 14 November 2026 at 12:30, venue St James Park, Exeter.
Who will be missing?
Exeter City: no absences. Cheltenham: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 1.95) and under 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.85).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 53% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.3%), then 1–0 (11.1%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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