Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05, 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen), with R. Hempel officiating. Expect a tight contest. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: FSV Mainz 05 win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: FSV Mainz 05 lose.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. FC Schalke 04 lie 17th, having collected 6 points after 8 matches (1W 3D 4L); FSV Mainz 05 lie 10th, having collected 10 points (3W 1D 4L).
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 57%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
- Unavailable: FC Schalke 04 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 60%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for FC Schalke 04: no absences. FSV Mainz 05 will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.02 | 3.70 | 2.44 |
| Market average | 2.96 | 3.55 | 2.36 |
| Lowest odds | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.19 | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.69 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.20 | 43.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.74 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Schalke 04 17th (6 points), FSV Mainz 05 10th (10 points).
- Absences: FC Schalke 04 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: injuries and missing players
FC Schalke 04
- No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
FC Schalke 04
Home and away
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: last matches of both teams
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our estimate gives FC Schalke 04 a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and FSV Mainz 05 41%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 17 October 2026 at 14:30, venue Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen. Referee: R. Hempel.
Who will be missing?
FC Schalke 04: no absences. FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.73) and under 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.28).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.5%), then 1–2 (8.9%) and 0–1 (8.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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