Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 24 October 2026 · 14:30 at Mewa Arena (Mainz), FSV Mainz 05 take on Werder Bremen, with F. Badstübner in charge. We make FSV Mainz 05 (55%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: FSV Mainz 05 win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): FSV Mainz 05 win by 1. Loses: a draw, FSV Mainz 05 lose.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. FSV Mainz 05 lie 10th, having collected 10 points after 8 matches (3W 1D 4L); Werder Bremen lie 5th, having collected 15 points (4W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, FSV Mainz 05 average 2.3 goals for and 1.7 against, compared with 2.0 for and 2.0 against for Werder Bremen.
- Form in the competition. FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 2L, goals 14–10; Werder Bremen: 2W 3D 1L, goals 12–12.
- Head to head. In 31 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 11 wins to Werder Bremen's 13 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 45–42.
What to expect
In our view FSV Mainz 05 hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Werder Bremen, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 62%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 62%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 31; FSV Mainz 05 11 wins, 7 draws, Werder Bremen 13 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.8 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: FSV Mainz 05 14–10, Werder Bremen 12–12.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
- Unavailable: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 62%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Werder Bremen will be without: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.80 | 4.34 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.13 | 4.41 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.51 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.61 | 2.50 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.37 | 2.30 | 41.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.51 | 61.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.43 | 38.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 12:03. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FSV Mainz 05 10th (10 points), Werder Bremen 5th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L (14:10), Werder Bremen 2W 3D 1L (12:12).
- H2H: 31 matches: FSV Mainz 05 11W 7D 13L, goals 45–42.
- Absences: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: injuries and missing players
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
- R. Zentnerabsence · doubtful
Werder Bremen
- F. Agucalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Alverocalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Musahmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. N'Diayegroin injury · will miss the match
- J. Njinmahthigh injury · will miss the match
- J. Stagemuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Starkmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Toppknee injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4-0-5 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1-1-7 | 12:25 | 4 |
Recent matches
FSV Mainz 05
Home and away
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: last matches of both teams
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FSV Mainz 05LLWLWWerder BremenWWDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Over 2.5 goals (1.57).
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our estimate gives FSV Mainz 05 a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Werder Bremen 22%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 14:30, venue Mewa Arena, Mainz. Referee: F. Badstübner.
Who will be missing?
FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.57) and under 2.5 goals at 38% (odds 2.61).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 62% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 1–1 (9.8%) and 2–0 (8.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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